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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter January 2010
THE ANNUAL ECONOMIZING KICK
Every January, my father instructed family members in the art of post-holiday economizing. Lessons started with the knock on the bathroom door when the shower ran too long. The New Year’s pork tenderloin and sauerkraut was replaced by hotdogs, sauerkraut and dumplings, which only the Pillsbury Doughboy could provide. The economizing kick lasted until about Valentine’s Day.
This year’s shoppers remind me of my father’s post-holiday behavior—planning to economize near-term compared with last month (Figure 1). Compared with last year, however, the percentage of shoppers planning to spend the same vs. a year ago is up 7 percentage points. No doubt shoppers will look for bargains in January but indications of near-term spending are more positive than they were a year ago.
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores in the Coming Month
Compared to This Time Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2008 – December 2009
Driving a more positive outlook for 2010 are households’ perceptions that their investments are in much better shape than last year and their debts are not as concerning as last year, although incomes remain a drag (Figure 2).
- In December 2009, less than one-third of households said that they are worse off than the previous year in terms of their investments, which is a big improvement from a year ago when more than half of all households felt worse off about their investments.
- Incomes remain a growing concern. In December, the percentage of households that said they are worse off in terms of household income increased slightly. And the percentage of households that said they feel better off in terms of their income declined.
Figure 2
Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year
|
|
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
|
Sample Size |
4037 |
4085 |
|
Job security of employed household members |
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
14% |
15% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
62% |
63% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
22% |
|
Household income level |
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
28% |
24% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
44% |
46% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
28% |
30% |
|
Credit card debt level |
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
21% |
25% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
54% |
54% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
25% |
21% |
|
Monthly mortgage and car payments |
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
16% |
18% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
69% |
68% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
14% |
14% |
|
Worth of household members' investments |
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
8% |
21% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
41% |
47% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
51% |
32% |
|
Value of my home |
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
13% |
16% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
51% |
56% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
36% |
28% |
Highlighting/bolding indicates significant difference between
December 2008 and December 2009 percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2008 and December 2009
WARDROBES GET A HOLIDAY UPDATE
This season’s holiday shoppers focused gift-buying on the usual merchandise categories: apparel, gift cards, toys and books in particular (Figure 3). The percentage of shoppers purchasing gifts in those categories remained even with last year with the exception of books—currently undergoing some shift from hard copy to e-readers.
Figure 3
Types of Gifts Given This Holiday Season
|
|
December |
December |
December |
|
Sample Size |
3618 |
3745 |
3685 |
|
Clothing, clothing accessories or shoes |
68% |
63% |
64% |
|
Gift cards / gift certificates |
55% |
54% |
53% |
|
Toys/dolls/games (not video games) |
52% |
46% |
44% |
|
Books |
42% |
37% |
34% |
|
Personal care or beauty items |
30% |
31% |
32% |
|
Pre-recorded music or video tapes, CDs or DVDs |
39% |
32% |
30% |
|
Video games, video gaming systems or related accessories |
26% |
30% |
28% |
|
Money/checks/stocks/bonds |
27% |
26% |
24% |
|
Food/food baskets |
23% |
23% |
23% |
|
Consumer electronics or personal computer-related accessories |
24% |
23% |
20% |
|
Home decor or home-related furnishings |
21% |
21% |
18% |
|
Sporting goods or leisure items |
17% |
15% |
13% |
|
Small appliances |
13% |
13% |
13% |
|
Fine Jewelry |
15% |
13% |
11% |
|
Hand tools |
7% |
6% |
6% |
|
Plants/wreaths/flowers |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
Power tools |
5% |
4% |
4% |
|
Other |
18% |
21% |
19% |
* Unweighted topline data.
Note: Highlighting/bolding indicates a significantly higher percentage than December 2009
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2007, December 2008 and December 2009
Further boosting apparel sales were shoppers buying “one for her and one for me.” Forty-three percent of holiday shoppers made purchases for themselves while gift shopping. And six out of 10 “self-gifters” bought apparel, accessories or shoes (Figure 4).
Figure 4
Types of Self-Purchases While Gift Shopping*
|
Clothing, clothing accessories or shoes |
60% |
|
Personal care or beauty items |
25% |
|
Books |
17% |
|
Pre-recorded CDs or DVDs |
13% |
|
Home décor or home-related furnishings |
13% |
|
Food/food baskets |
10% |
|
Consumer electronics or personal computer-related accessories |
9% |
|
Small appliances |
6% |
|
Fine jewelry |
5% |
|
Video games, video gaming systems or related accessories |
5% |
|
Sporting goods or leisure items |
3% |
|
Plants/wreaths/flowers |
3% |
|
Hand tools |
2% |
|
Power tools |
2% |
|
Toys/dolls/games (not video games) |
1% |
|
Other |
12% |
*Unweighted topline data
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2009
BEAUTY, APPAREL AND SHOE RETAILERS CONVERT GIFT SHOPPERS TO SELF-GIFTERS
Apparel and accessories stores enjoyed a same-store sales increase of more than 5% (weighted composite for retailers recently reporting). Not coincidentally, beauty, apparel and shoe retailers did the best job of converting gift shoppers to self-gifters (Figure 5). Almost one-third of gift shoppers for those categories made purchases for themselves—likely a reflection of pent-up demand in the categories, which have been taking a backseat to groceries and household essentials during the recession.
Figure 5
Where Shopped for Gifts and Purchased for Self
Shopped Retailer for Gifts |
Made Purchase for Self |
Self Purchase Conversion Rate1 |
|
| Sample size | 3533 |
1550 |
|
| Average self-purchase conversion rate | 44% |
||
| Personal care and beauty retailers (such as Bath & Body Works, Aveda, Sephora) | 24% |
7%* |
29% |
| Apparel specialty retailers (such as Gap, Chico's, Ann Taylor, etc.) | 22% |
6% |
28% |
| Grocery stores/supermarkets | 28% |
8% |
28% |
| Shoe retailers | 14% |
4% |
26% |
| Kohl's | 33% |
8% |
25% |
| Factory outlet stores | 12% |
3% |
24% |
| Crafts or fabrics retailers | 17% |
4% |
23% |
| Macy's | 23% |
5% |
23% |
| Drug store retailers | 21% |
5% |
23% |
| Office supply retailers | 12% |
3% |
21% |
| Small-format value retailers (such as dollar stores, e.g., Dollar General, Family Dollar) | 23% |
5% |
21% |
| Wal-Mart/Wal-Mart Supercenter | 59% |
12% |
20% |
| Home furnishings/domestics store retailers | 10% |
2% |
20% |
| Book and media retailers | 31% |
6% |
20% |
| Online only retailers | 38% |
7% |
20% |
| Warehouse clubs (such as Costco, SAM'S Club) | 23% |
4% |
19% |
| Target/SuperTarget | 46% |
9% |
19% |
| Nordstrom, Saks 5th Avenue, Bloomingdale's or Neiman Marcus | 9% |
2% |
18% |
| JCPenney | 31% |
6% |
18% |
| Lowe's | 13% |
2% |
17% |
| The Home Depot | 14% |
2% |
15% |
| Jewelry store retailers | 11% |
1% |
13% |
| Kmart/Big Kmart | 21% |
3% |
13% |
| Meijer | 8% |
1% |
12% |
| Sporting goods retailers | 15% |
2% |
11% |
| Best Buy | 29% |
3% |
11% |
| Sears | 21% |
2% |
10% |
| Gadget/gift/theme retailers | 9% |
1% |
8% |
| Other toy stores | 9% |
<1% |
5% |
| Toys 'R Us | 26% |
1% |
4% |
1The percentage of gift shoppers who shopped that purchased for themselves
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2009
LESS SELF-GIFTING ONLINE
With more opportunity to stimulate shoppers’ senses into buying frenzies, stores do a much better job of converting gift shoppers to self-gifters than do Web sites. The overall conversion rate for those shopping Web sites for gifts and making purchases for themselves is 28% (vs. 43%) (Figure 6).
- Although Amazon.com was the most popular Web site shopped this year for holiday gifts and converted almost one out of five (19%) of shoppers to self-gifters, QVC’s Web site convinced more (24%) of its gift shoppers to buy something for themselves.
- Walmart attracted one-third of online shoppers to its site and outperformed Target by converting double the percentage of holiday gift shoppers to self-gifters.
Figure 6
Web Sites Shopped for Holiday Gifts and Made Self Purchases
Shopped |
Made Purchase for Self |
Self Purchase Conversion Rate1 |
|
| Sample size | 2190 |
||
| Overall conversion rate | 28% |
||
| QVC | 8% |
2%* |
24% |
| Amazon.com | 55% |
11% |
19% |
| eBay | 26% |
4% |
15% |
| Kohl’s | 15% |
2% |
10% |
| JCPenney | 17% |
2% |
10% |
| Costco | 6% |
1% |
8% |
| Dell | 4% |
< 1% |
7% |
| Macy’s | 11% |
1% |
7% |
| Walmart | 33% |
2% |
6% |
| The Home Depot | 5% |
< 1% |
6% |
| Sam’s Club | 6% |
< 1% |
5% |
| Zappos | 4% |
< 1% |
5% |
| Apple | 6% |
< 1% |
5% |
| Best Buy | 20% |
1% |
5% |
| Sears | 12% |
1% |
4% |
| Overstock.com | 16% |
1% |
4% |
| Target | 27% |
1% |
3% |
| Lowe’s | 5% |
< 1% |
2% |
| Kmart | 12% |
< 1% |
2% |
| Toys “R” Us | 17% |
< 1% |
1% |
| Other | 30% |
8% |
NA |
| None of these | 9% |
3% |
*Read as: Among the 2190 shoppers who shopped for holiday gifts online this year, 2% purchased a gift for
themselves from QVC.com while holiday shopping online.
1The percentage of gift shoppers who shopped that purchased for themselves
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2009
ShopperScape™ members will receive a more detailed analysis of current shopping trends and spending plans for the holiday. ShopperScape™ members also can request assistance in custom analyses of this information by contacting Rachel McGuire (rmcguire@retailforward.com) or Mandy Putnam (mputnam@retailforward.com).
HOLIDAY 2009: UNDER THE MICROSCOPE Presented by Retail Forward, A Kantar Retail Company Retail Forward forecasted holiday 2009 to be the second-worst in 42 years—predicting flat growth for the holiday fourth quarter. What really happened in the retail sector this past holiday season? Join Retail Forward's team of economists and industry and consumer analysts for an assessment of the 2009 holiday and forecast for 2010. Our team will evaluate shopper insights from Retail Forward's ShopperScape™ survey and review retail sales results to help you interpret how retailers fared this past holiday season and to help you prepare for what lies ahead in the New Year. Join our panel of economists and industry and shopper insights analysts for “Holiday 2009: Under the Microscope” and learn:
TO REGISTER: Visit us online at www.retailforward.com. |
For more information about RFIS reports and ShopperScape™, please contact Katherine R. Clarke at Kathy.Clarke@kantarretail or 614-355-4009.
What's Retail Forward ShopperScape™? Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today’s consumers and their shopping behaviors. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS’s online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp to view sample reports and learn more about how to access ShopperScape™ information. |
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