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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter February 2010
SLOW RECOVERY ON MAIN STREET
Shoppers’ spending sentiment barely budged from last month and reminds us of how slow the economic recovery is materializing on Main Street vs. Wall Street (Figure 1). Year-to-year comparisons show the falloff in spending intentions has stabilized. Only 44% of shoppers plan to curb their short-term spending vs. 55% of January 2009 shoppers. However, plans to increase spending at retail have only picked up 4 percentage points since its low of 6% in March 2009.
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores in the Coming Month
Compared to This Time Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January 2009 – January 2010
One big reason why Main Street isn’t feeling the same post-recession fuzzies as Wall Street is reflected in deteriorating household income level figures (Figure 2). Between January 2009 and January 2010 there has been a falloff of 5 percentage points of shoppers reporting they feel better off about their household incomes. And, the percentage of shoppers who feel worse off about their incomes continues to increase.
- Concurrently, job security has not improved by much year-to-year. A couple more percentage points of shoppers feel more secure about their jobs than they did in December—perhaps because they survived the annual holiday layoffs that have historically plagued workers. But the percentage of shoppers feeling worse off in terms of job security remains at almost one-quarter of households.
Figure 2
Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year
|
Jan-09 |
Dec-09 |
Jan-10 |
|
|
Job security of employed household members |
|||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
15% |
15% |
17% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
61% |
63% |
60% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
22% |
23% |
|
Household income level |
|||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
30% |
24% |
25% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
43% |
46% |
44% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
27% |
30% |
32% |
|
Credit card debt level |
|||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
24% |
25% |
25% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
52% |
54% |
53% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
21% |
22% |
|
Monthly mortgage and car payments |
|||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
17% |
18% |
20% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
70% |
68% |
66% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
12% |
14% |
13% |
|
Worth of household members' investments |
|||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
10% |
21% |
24% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
39% |
47% |
45% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
52% |
32% |
31% |
|
Value of my home |
|||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
14% |
16% |
17% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
50% |
56% |
53% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
37% |
28% |
30% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January and December 2009 and January 2010
WHERE IS THE LOVE?
Prospective recipients of valentines could be replaying the oldie but goodie “Where Is the Love” sung by Roberta Flack—coincidentally, recorded during the early 70s recession—this Valentine’s Day. The percentages of both male and female shoppers planning to spend at least as much as they did last year hasn’t shifted, but there was a significant downward shift from those planning to spend less last year to those not planning to spend at all this year (Figure 3). The increase in shoppers not buying Valentine’s Day gifts is especially significant among female shoppers.
Figure 3
Compared to Last Year, Do You Plan to Spend More, the Same,
or Less This Year on Gifts for Valentine's Day?
Male Shoppers |
Female Shoppers |
|||||||||
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
|
Much More/Somewhat More |
8% |
7% |
12% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
9% |
6% |
4% |
6% |
|
About the Same |
46% |
52% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
38% |
35% |
|
Much Less/Somewhat Less |
13% |
10% |
14% |
22% |
18% |
15% |
12% |
17% |
24% |
19% |
|
Do not Purchase Gifts for Valentine's Day |
34% |
31% |
30% |
27% |
31% |
38% |
36% |
35% |
34% |
41% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010
OPTIMISM FOR APPAREL AND SOME HOMEGOODS ON THE HORIZON
Despite the “February funk” shoppers are experiencing, the future outlook for fulfilling some pent-up demand due to postponed or reduced spending appears bright in several apparel and some homegoods categories (Figure 4). The first column rank orders categories that shoppers postponed buying or reduced their spending on during the recession. The second column shows the percentages of shoppers who postponed buying or reduced their spending in the categories that plan to resume their spending in the particular categories during the next six months.
- Of note, more than one-third (35%) of shoppers did not postpone purchases in any of the listed categories during the recession.
- Of the polled categories, home furnishings/décor and furniture purchases were most likely to be postponed during the recession. However, they are likely to see a pickup during the next six months. Almost one-quarter of shoppers who postponed or reduced their spending in home furnishings/décor during the recession plan to resume spending in the category in the next six months. And, 20% of shoppers postponing furniture purchases plan to buy furniture in the next six months.
- Casual apparel represents a category with relatively high postponement and high post-recession pickup percentages. Casual apparel already experienced an uptick in holiday spending and these new figures bode well for a boost in spring wardrobe updates—assuming weather and fashion trends are favorable.
- Categories with lower pickup percentages—thereby less chance of shoppers resuming their spending sooner than later—include home textiles, DVD/Blu-ray players, video game systems, power tools and toys. These categories will be taking a back seat to the flat-panel TVs arriving just in time for Super Bowl XLIV and the Winter Olympics.
Figure 4
Postponed Purchases and Plans to Resume Spending in the Next Six Months
Postponed or Reduced Spending in Category during Recession |
Shoppers Who Postponed or Reduced Spending in Category That Plan to Resume Spending in Next
|
|
| Sample size | 4057 |
|
| Home furnishings/décor (e.g., window coverings, home accent pieces, lamps, rugs, etc.) | 31% |
23% |
| Furniture | 30% |
20% |
| Casual clothing item (e.g., jeans, sweater, etc.) | 27% |
42% |
| Flat-panel television | 24% |
22% |
| Major appliance | 23% |
23% |
| Dress/business casual clothing item (e.g., suit, skirt, etc.) | 21% |
29% |
| Pre-recorded DVDs or CDs | 21% |
21% |
| Casual shoes | 20% |
35% |
| Dress shoes | 19% |
24% |
| Personal computer | 19% |
28% |
| Home textiles (e.g., bath textiles, bedroom textiles, kitchen textiles, etc.) | 19% |
18% |
| Small kitchen or personal appliances (e.g., microwave, coffeemaker, blow dryer, etc.) | 17% |
20% |
| Books | 17% |
26% |
| DVD/Blu-ray player | 16% |
14% |
| Lingerie/underwear | 15% |
32% |
| Mobile/smart phone | 15% |
22% |
| Video game system | 14% |
12% |
| Power tool | 13% |
14% |
| Toys/dolls/games (not video games) | 10% |
16% |
| Children’s apparel item | 7% |
31% |
| Children’s shoes | 6% |
34% |
| Other (specify) | 2% |
36% |
| None of these | 35% |
Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January 2010
ShopperScape™ members will receive a more detailed analysis of current shopping trends and spending plans for the holiday. ShopperScape™ members also can request assistance in custom analyses of this information by contacting Rachel McGuire (rmcguire@retailforward.com) or Mandy Putnam (mputnam@retailforward.com).
KANTAR RETAIL ANNOUNCES NEW REGISTER TODAY FOR A COMPLIMENTARY TRIAL – Kantar Retail experts discuss the implications of key developments affecting apparel retailing in this new Webinar Series! Each quarterly Apparel Retailing Webinar will cover topics including insights into new formats, in-store trends and shopper insights from Retail Forward’s ShopperScape™. This month, join Kelly Tackett, Senior Analyst for Kantar Retail as she explores:
To learn more about this event, request complimentary trial access to this Webinar and find out how to subscribe to the Webinar Series, follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/download/ApparelWebinar.html. Future Webinar Series events also include an FDM Shopper Series and Home Improvement Series! Questions about subscribing to the series? Contact Katherine Clarke at katherine.clarke@kantarretail.com.
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For more information about RFIS reports and ShopperScape™, please contact Katherine R. Clarke at katherine.clarke@kantarretail.com or 614-355-4009.
What's Retail Forward ShopperScape™? Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today’s consumers and their shopping behaviors. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS’s online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp to view sample reports and learn more about how to access ShopperScape™ information. |
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