To
view this email as a web page, click here.
Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter March 2008
- Shoppers’ growing bias toward spending less is evident in this month’s data. While six out of 10 shoppers say they will likely spend the same as last year, the remaining shoppers are more likely to be cutting their spending than increasing it.
- Expect shoppers to adopt a variety of strategies in the months ahead to cope with rising food and fuel prices—everything from spending less at restaurants to using coupons more frequently to consolidating spending at stores that offer the best overall value.
- While St. Patrick’s Day celebrations are not likely to do much to energize retail sales—two-thirds of shoppers have not made plans to celebrate or claim they do not celebrate the day—an early Easter and early spring/Easter breaks should have a more favorable impact on retail sales this month.
- Don’t count on a spending spree when shoppers receive their rebate checks. Shoppers are most likely to say they will use the checks to pay credit card or other bills, augment saving accounts, or pay for everyday purchases such as groceries and gasoline.
Economic Outlook: Shoppers Less Optimistic
According to TNS Retail Forward’s ShopperScape™, primary household shoppers are less optimistic about the country’s economic outlook compared with this time last year. More than two-thirds (68%) of all shoppers are disheartened about the status of the economy (Figure 1).
- Middle Market shoppers are the most discouraged about the country’s economic outlook with 70% somewhat or much less optimistic compared with last year.
- Down Market shoppers are the most optimistic about the country’s economic outlook with a combined 13% feeling somewhat or much more optimistic.
- Up Market shoppers are the most likely to be feeling the same about the economy as they were last year.
Figure
1
Compared to this time last year how do you feel about the country's economic outlook?
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500)
|
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+)
|
I am much more optimistic about the country's economic outlook |
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
I am somewhat more optimistic about the country's economic outlook |
7% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
I am just as optimistic about the country's economic outlook |
22% |
22% |
20% |
25% |
I am somewhat less optimistic about the country's economic outlook |
41% |
31% |
41% |
45% |
I am much less optimistic about the country's economic outlook |
27% |
34% |
29% |
20% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
In terms of the financial health of their households, the factor that is causing shoppers the most concern is the worth of their investments (Figure 2).
- Nearly one-quarter (23%) believe their household finances are somewhat or much worse off compared with the same time last year due to the worth of their investments.
- Shoppers are most likely to say they have not experienced a change in their monthly mortgage and car payments compared with the same time last year.
- Nearly four out of 10 shoppers (38%) report their household income level is somewhat or much better compared with the same time last year.
Figure
2
Compared to this time last year, how much better off or how much worse off
is your household in terms of the following factors?
|
Much
Better Off |
Somewhat Better Off |
No Change From Last Year |
Somewhat Worse Off |
Much
Worse Off |
Job security of employed household members |
8% |
14% |
62% |
10% |
5% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Household income level |
8% |
30% |
42% |
15% |
6% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Credit card debt level |
11% |
17% |
51% |
15% |
6% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Monthly mortgage and car payments |
8% |
13% |
65% |
10% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Worth of household members’ investments |
6% |
21% |
51% |
18% |
5% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Value of my home |
8% |
22% |
50% |
16% |
4% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
Despite the pessimistic feelings about the country’s economic outlook, more than half of all shoppers plan to spend about the same at retail stores in the upcoming month as compared with the same time last year (Figure 3).
- Down Market shoppers are most likely to have plans to change their spending behavior. More Down Market shoppers plan to spend more in the coming month compared with last year. However, a greater percentage of Down Market shoppers plans to spend less.
- Up Market shoppers will be least likely to make a change in their spending with 64% planning to spend about the same at retail stores as they did last year.
Figure
3
Compared to this time last year, in the next month do you plan to…?
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500) |
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+) |
Spend much more at retail stores than you did last year |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spend somewhat more at retail stores than you did last year |
9% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spend about the same at retail stores as you did last year |
60% |
54% |
60% |
64% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spend somewhat less at retail stores than you did last year |
19% |
20% |
19% |
18% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spend much less at retail stores than you did last year |
9% |
11% |
9% |
7% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
The government is scheduled to mail out tax rebate checks later this year, and the majority of shoppers will not be spending it on a special purchase. Instead, shoppers plan to pay credit card or other bills and/or put it into savings (Figure 4).
- Nearly one-third (32%) of all shoppers plan to pay credit card or other bills with their tax rebate expected later this year. Another 30% plan to put the tax rebate into savings.
- Nearly one-fifth (19%) plan to use their rebate for a special purchase such as a vacation, jewelry or a big-ticket item.
- Down Market shoppers are the most likely to use their rebate check for everyday expenses.
- Nine percent of all shoppers do not expect to receive a rebate check.
Figure
4
The government is scheduled to mail out tax rebates later this year. If you get a rebate check,
how will you use the money?*
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500) |
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+) |
Pay credit card or other bills |
32% |
31% |
34% |
30% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Put it into savings |
30% |
25% |
30% |
32% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Use it for everyday expenses (e.g., groceries, gasoline, etc.) |
23% |
31% |
24% |
16% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Use it for a special purchase (e.g., vacation, jewelry, or big-ticket consumer electronics items such as a computer or HDTV, etc.) |
19% |
14% |
19% |
20% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Pay down mortgage debt |
4% |
2% |
4% |
5% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Make charitable donations |
3% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Other |
7% |
7% |
7% |
6% |
| |
|
|
|
|
I do not expect to get a rebate check |
9% |
17% |
6% |
11% |
*Multiple answers allowed
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
Rising fuel prices are causing some shoppers to re-evaluate their driving behavior and spending habits. The majority of all shoppers are making some change(s), most notably in how they organize their shopping trips and their overall spending habits (Figure 5).
- Due to rising fuel prices the majority (51%) of all shoppers are planning their errands to minimize the distance they travel.
- Thirty-seven percent of all shoppers are going to stores that are closer to home to minimize driving.
- Down Market shoppers are the most likely to plan further changes in driving behavior if gas prices stay high while nearly one-third (29%) are not changing driving behavior or spending habits because of gasoline prices.
- Shoppers are least likely to change vacation plans to reduce the distance traveled.
- Almost half (46%) of all shoppers are spending less overall due to high gasoline prices.
Figure
5
How are high gasoline prices affecting your household? In terms of driving, are you…?*
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500) |
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+) |
Planning your errands to minimize the distance you travel |
51% |
52% |
53% |
44% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Going to stores that are closer to your home so that you don't have to drive as far |
37% |
44% |
37% |
32% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Planning to change your driving behavior if gas prices stay high |
20% |
25% |
20% |
17% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Chaning vacation plans to reduce the distance you travel |
14% |
14% |
14% |
12% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Not changing your driving behavior because of gasoline prices |
29% |
24% |
26% |
39% |
How are high gasoline prices affecting your household? In terms of spending, are you…?*
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500) |
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+) |
Spending less overall |
46% |
53% |
48% |
38% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spending less eating out at restaurants |
38% |
38% |
40% |
33% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spending less on everyday items like groceries |
18% |
26% |
18% |
13% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Consolidating more of your spending at stores where you earn discounts on gasoline |
15% |
15% |
15% |
14% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Not changing your spending because of gasoline prices |
29% |
23% |
27% |
38% |
*Multiple answers allowed
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
In addition to rising gasoline prices, rising food prices are affecting household spending. The majority of all shoppers are making a change in their spending behavior (Figure 6).
- More than half (51%) of all shoppers are not buying food items that seem “just too expensive.”
- Forty-three percent of all shoppers are saving money by forgoing restaurant dining.
- More than one-third (39%) of all shoppers are cutting food budgets by clipping coupons more frequently, and 37% are simply spending less overall.
Figure
6 How are rising food prices affecting your household spending? Are you…?*
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500) |
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+) |
Not buying food items that seem "just too expensive" |
51% |
59% |
54% |
38% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spending less eating out at restaurants |
43% |
45% |
45% |
39% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Using coupons more frequently |
39% |
39% |
40% |
36% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Spending less overall |
37% |
46% |
38% |
28% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Consolidating your spending at stores that you think offer the best value overall |
33% |
38% |
35% |
26% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Trying to buy the cheapest version of products on your shopping list |
32% |
43% |
33% |
22% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Cutting back on "everyday indulgences" such as specialty coffee drinks |
30% |
33% |
32% |
25% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Buying fewer gourmet and specialty products |
24% |
26% |
25% |
21% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Cooking more from scratch |
24% |
29% |
24% |
21% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Buying more private brand products |
20% |
22% |
22% |
16% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Not changing your spending because of rising food prices |
18% |
11% |
16% |
26% |
*Multiple answers allowed
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
Go Green
With St. Patrick’s Day right around the corner, TNS Retail Forward’s ShopperScape™ surveyed primary household shoppers to see how they are planning to celebrate.
- Shoppers are planning to wear an item of green clothing more than anything else (23%).
- Ten percent of all shoppers plan to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day by making an Irish meal.
- More than one-quarter (28%) of celebrants have yet to make plans for the holiday, and 38% do not celebrate St. Patrick’s Day at all.
Figure
7
What are your plans for celebrating St. Patrick's Day?*
|
All
Shoppers |
Down
Market
(<$22,500) |
Middle
Market
($22,500 to $84,999) |
Up
Market
($85,000+) |
Wear an item of green clothing |
23% |
20% |
24% |
23% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Make an Irish meal |
10% |
7% |
10% |
12% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Get together with friends |
8% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Send St. Patrick's Day cards |
4% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Attend a St. Patrick's Day party |
3% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Drink green beer |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Go to an Irish pub |
3% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Buy or make pastries/candies decorated for St. Patrick's Day |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Attend a St. Patrick's Day parade |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Buy St. Patrick's Day decorations |
2% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Attend an Irish festival |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Give St. Partick's Day gifts |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Other |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Haven't made plans yet |
28% |
30% |
27% |
28% |
| |
|
|
|
|
I don't celebrate St. Patrick's Day |
38% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
*Multiple answers allowed
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
Wal-Mart World™ Annual Shopper Review With an emphasis on low prices and one-stop shopping, Wal-Mart is well-positioned to draw shoppers away from other formats amid high food and fuel prices, growing credit concerns and a weakening economic climate. In 2007, Wal-Mart registered notable gains in its frequent shopper base and share of shopper preference across key categories such as apparel, grocery, and health and beauty care. Expect the retailer to continue to refine its merchandise mix and rely on proven strategies (e.g., price rollbacks, basics assortments) to sustain the momentum.
Katia Watson, Consultant, TNS Retail Forward
For more information on Wal-Mart World™ reports including the Wal-Mart World™ Annual Shopper Review and the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or kclarke@retailforward.com.
SAVE THE DATES! TNS RETAIL FORWARD’S 2008 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE DATE ANNOUNCEMENT—The 2008 Strategic Outlook Conference series moves to the fall this year. Dates and locations are as follows:
Oct. 14, 2008 Los Angeles at the Hyatt Regency Century Plaza
Oct. 21, 2008 Chicago at the Donald Stephens Convention Center (Rosemont)
Oct. 29, 2008 New York City at the Marriott Marquis
Conference details will be announced as they are available. Watch your Member Alert and Retail News Today™ for updates!
| What's
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™? TNS
Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today's consumers and their shopping
behaviors. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November
2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date
information about where consumers shop and what they buy. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
is administered through TNS/NFO's online household panel, weighted based to be
representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at
614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp.
|
|
