To view this email as a web page, click here. Welcome to the ShopperScape™ Newsletter April 2007 PREDICTIONS Anticipate shoppers flocking to gardening retailers with more enthusiasm than apparel retailers this spring. Expect shoppers to head to purveyors of gardening and landscaping products at about the same pace as they did last year. Look for shoppers to maintain about the same level of spending on updating their spring wardrobes as last year.  Expect discount stores to benefit from Down Market shoppers loosening their purse strings a little more this year. Plan for about three-fourths of shoppers to celebrate Easter.  Anticipate one-quarter to one-third of them will require coaxing to spend on various categories of Easter merchandise at levels equivalent to last year.  Expect grocery stores and supercenters to benefit from increased spending on Easter meals at home instead of dining out. HOT OFF THE PRESS More Gardeners than Fashionistas   For the second year in a row the percentage of shoppers planning to spend more this year than last year on gardening and landscaping outweighs the percentage of shoppers planning to spend more on apparel. More than one-quarter (27%) of shoppers plan to spend more on gardening and landscaping this year than last.  The most notable year-to-year shift is the increase in the percentage of shoppers planning to spend the same amount (47%) as last year (Figure 1). The increase in percentage of shoppers planning to spend the same amount as last year is a result of the decline in the percentage of shoppers planning to spend less this year on gardening and landscaping across all income markets. Up Market shoppers are twice as likely to plan to spend more this year (35%) as they are to plan to spend less this year (17%), which bodes well for garden supply retailers such as nurseries and home improvement centers. Figure 1 Plans for Gardening and Landscaping Around the Home this Year Compared to Last Year All Primary Shoppers Down Market Middle Market Up Market 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Plan to spend a lot/little more gardening and landscaping compared to last year 28% 27% 17% 18% 27% 25% 35% 35% Plan to spend about the same amount gardening and landscaping compared to last year 42% 47% 38% 42% 43% 47% 44% 48% Plan to spend a lot/little less gardening and landscaping compared to last year 30% 27% 45% 40% 30% 28% 21% 17% Source:  TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, March 2007 Appetites for new apparel are heartier this year compared with last year among Down Market shoppers but not among Middle Market or Up Market shoppers. The largest shift in shoppers’ plans for buying apparel is reflected in an increase in percentage of shoppers planning to “stay the course”—spending about the same as they did last year on updating their personal wardrobes (Figure 2). Of the three income segments, Up Market shoppers are most inclined to maintain last year’s spending levels. Figure 2 Plans for Updating Personal Wardrobe for the Spring this Year Compared to Last Year All Shoppers Down Market Middle Market Up Market 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Plan to spend a lot/little more on clothing for myself compared to last year 24% 23% 22% 24% 22% 22% 28% 25% Plan to spend about the same amount on clothing for myself compared to last year 47% 51% 40% 45% 47% 51% 50% 54% Plan to spend a lot/little less on clothing for myself compared to last year 30% 26% 38% 31% 32% 28% 22% 21% Source:  TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, March 2007 SHOPPER INSIGHTS Men Value Convenience More than Price When Grocery Shopping Retail Forward’s research on men shopping for groceries reveals just one major difference in their channel preferences from primary shoppers overall. Although supermarkets represent the preferred channel of choice for both primary shoppers overall and men shopping alone for groceries, men shopping alone are more likely to stock up for groceries at warehouse clubs (Figure 3). Figure 3 Where Make Most Stock-up Grocery Trips   All Primary Shoppers Men Shopping Alone   (n = 5373) (n = 1943) Supercenter (e.g., Fred Meyer, Meijer, SuperTarget, Wal-Mart Supercenter) 24% 22% Warehouse Club (e.g., BJ's Wholesale Club, Costco, SAM'S Club) 9% 13% Supermarket/grocery store 60% 56% Other type of retailer 7% 6% Male head of household does not make stock-up grocery trips NA 3% Highlighting indicates significant differences between column percentages. Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ Men shopping alone overwhelmingly select supermarkets for fill-in grocery trips (Figure 4). Figure 4 Channel Preference for Most Grocery Trips   Stock-up Trips Fill-in Trips (n = 1943) (n = 2369) Supermarket/grocery store 56% 66% Supercenter (e.g., Fred Meyer, Meijer, SuperTarget, Wal-Mart Supercenter) 22% 19% Warehouse Club (e.g., BJ's Wholesale Club, Costco, SAM'S Club) 13% 4% Convenience store NA 5% Dollar store (e.g., Dollar General, Family Dollar) NA 1% Other 6% 4% Male head of household does not make (stock-up/fill-in) grocery trips 3% 2% Highlighting indicates significant differences between column percentages. Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ Convenience to home, work or other stores drives men’s store choices for both stock-up and fill-in grocery shopping. Convenience is significantly more likely to be a factor in store choice for fill-in trips (Figure 5). Lower everyday prices (than competitors) declines in importance along with one-stop shopping appeal for fill-in trips. Further down the list of main reasons why men choose a store for grocery shopping are being in-stock on items they want to buy, which is more important for fill-in trips, and better sales/promotions, which is more important for stock-up trips. Figure 5 Main Reasons for Men's Store Choice When Purchasing   Stock- up Trips Fill-in Trips (n = 1943) (n = 2369) Convenient to home, work or other stores 61% 71% Lower everyday prices than competitors 35% 24% Better able to one-stop shop for many categories/services 24% 19% Store is appealing/easier to shop 17% 15% In stock on the items want to buy 16% 19% Open 24-hours every day 16% 16% Better sales or promotions than other stores 15% 12% Higher quality fresh foods 13% 11% Frequent shopper/rewards program 10% 10% More brands liked 9% 9% Store is cleaner/more attractive than other stores 7% 6% Offers more unique or different items can't find at other stores 6% 5% Offers more of the name/national brands liked compared with other stores 4% 3% Other reason 6% 7% Don't know 4% 4% Highlighting indicates significant differences between column percentages. Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ More research findings about men’s grocery shopping behaviors will be published in an upcoming Shopper Perspectives report—a new offer from the Retail Forward Intelligence System™.   For more information on the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or email her at kclarke@retailforward.com. Happy Easter for Supermarkets/Supercenters More than three-quarters (77%) of shoppers will be celebrating Easter this weekend and most will be celebrating it at home (Figure 6). Figure 6 Percent of Primary Shoppers Celebrating Easter All Primary Shoppers Yes 77% No 22% Don't Know 1% Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, March 2007 Most shoppers intend to spend about the same as they did last year on Easter-related activities and goods but a sizeable percentage plan to curb their spending (Figure 7). Easter meals at restaurants (39%), children’s apparel (35%) and vacation travel (32%) show the largest percentages of shoppers intending to spend less this year. In contrast, an Easter meal at home (16%) shows the smallest percentage of shoppers intending to spend less this year. Figure 7 Household Planned Easter Holiday Spending for Category, by All Primary Shoppers Celebrating Easter All Primary Shoppers Vacation Travel More than Last Year 8% Same as Last Year 60% Less than Last Year 32% Entertainment Away from Home More than Last Year 7% Same as Last Year 64% Less than Last Year 29% Dining Out More than Last Year 9% Same as Last Year 66% Less than Last Year 26% Adult Apparel More than Last Year 7% Same as Last Year 65% Less than Last Year 28% Children's Apparel More than Last Year 8% Same as Last Year 58% Less than Last Year 35% Holiday Gifts More than Last Year 7% Same as Last Year 67% Less than Last Year 26% Easter Greeting Cards More than Last Year 5% Same as Last Year 72% Less than Last Year 23% Easter Candy More than Last Year 7% Same as Last Year 68% Less than Last Year 25% Easter Flowers More than Last Year 4% Same as Last Year 67% Less than Last Year 29% Easter Meal at Home More than Last Year 11% Same as Last Year 73% Less than Last Year 16% Easter Meal at a Restaurant More than Last Year 5% Same as Last Year 56% Less than Last Year 39% Source:  TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, March 2007 Supermarkets/supercenters will benefit most with almost three quarters (72%) of shoppers planning to prepare an Easter meal at home and the average Easter celebrant spending $35 on a meal at home (Figure 8). There will also be plenty of chocolate bunnies, peeps and jelly beans to share as more than three-quarters (78%) of Easter shoppers plan to buy Easter candy and spend an average $14 on it. A little more than half (53%) of Easter shoppers plan to buy Easter greeting cards. Figure 8 Average Amount All Primary Shoppers Who Celebrate Easter Are Planning to Spend on Easter Categories   Percentage of Primary Shoppers Spending Average Amount Easter Meal at Home 72% $35 Easter Candy 78% $14 Easter Meal at a Restaurant 24% $14 Easter Flowers 37% $9 Easter Greeting Cards 53% $6 Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, March 2007 POINT OF VIEW Shopper Update: Target Shopper Annual Review ”Target’s trend-right fashion apparel and homegoods offers attract shoppers on a monthly basis, but not necessarily on a weekly basis.  But the percentage of weekly shoppers at Target is picking up, helped by new merchandising initiatives that deliver excitement and freshness to its apparel offer, e.g., GO International, an expanded grocery offer at its general merchandise stores and more SuperTarget store in operation.” Jenny Halterman , Senior Consultant, TNS Retail Forward For more information on TNS Retail Forward’s Shopper Update: Target Shopper Annual Review or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or email her at kclarke@retailforward.com. 2007 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE Retail Forward Intelligence System™ 2007 Strategic Outlook Conference Retailing 2015: New Frontiers 2015 is only eight short years away, but the environment for retailing will be dramatically different than it is today. What are the top 15 trends that will challenge retailers and suppliers in the years ahead? How can your organization best navigate the new frontiers? Attend THE premier industry event for retail and supplier executives for the answers. Hundreds of senior executives in strategy, marketing, consumer insights, merchandising, category management, business development and market research, will convene at TNS Retail Forward’s 2007 Strategic Outlook Conference Retailing 2015: New Frontiers. Join us and learn from the industry’s leading analysts as they explore what lies ahead and help you prepare for the new frontiers of Retailing 2015. Find out: • How the shopper landscape will evolve • Where suppliers will find growth • What new formats and concepts will develop • Which new technologies will change the balance of power • What tomorrow’s retail enterprise will look like DOWNLOAD THE INVITATION REGISTER NOW What's TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™? TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today's consumers and their shopping behaviors. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS/NFO's online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp.

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