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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter June 2009
| SHOPPER SENTIMENT REBOUNDS AND FINANCIAL HEALTH STABILIZES |
May’s spending sentiment rebounded strongly from previous months. Not many more shoppers indicated intentions to spend more during the next four weeks vs. this time last year. But the percentage of shoppers indicating intentions to pull back on spending declined significantly while the percentage of shoppers planning to spend the same increased sharply (Figure 1).
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores
in the Coming Month Compared to this Time Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, May 2008–May 2009
Despite more upbeat shopper sentiment, perceptions of household financial health remain about the same as they have since the beginning of 2009 (Figure 2).
- The biggest change observed this month is the shift in perceptions about household investments. Shoppers are not feeling quite as bad about their investments as they had during the market meltdown last fall when the percentage of shoppers feeling worse about their investments rose to 52%.
- Shoppers’ views about other measures of household financial health have remained fairly stable since January despite continuing increases in unemployment rates.
Figure
2
Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year
| |
Jan-09 |
Feb-09 |
Mar-09 |
Apr-09 |
May-09 |
| Job security of employed household members |
|
|
|
|
|
| Much/Somewhat Better Off |
15% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
| No Change from Last Year |
61% |
60% |
59% |
60% |
61% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
25% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Household income level |
|
|
|
|
|
| Much/Somewhat Better Off |
30% |
29% |
26% |
27% |
26% |
| No Change from Last Year |
43% |
43% |
42% |
42% |
43% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
27% |
28% |
32% |
31% |
31% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Credit card debt level |
|
|
|
|
|
| Much/Somewhat Better Off |
24% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
| No Change from Last Year |
52% |
55% |
53% |
52% |
55% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
21% |
22% |
22% |
20% |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Monthly mortgage and car payments |
|
|
|
|
| Much/Somewhat Better Off |
17% |
18% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
| No Change from Last Year |
70% |
68% |
69% |
68% |
68% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
12% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
| |
|
|
|
| Worth of household members' investments |
|
|
|
| Much/Somewhat Better Off |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
| No Change from Last Year |
39% |
39% |
37% |
38% |
|
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
52% |
52% |
54% |
53% |
47% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Value of my home |
|
|
|
|
|
| Much/Somewhat Better Off |
14% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
14% |
| No Change from Last Year |
50% |
49% |
48% |
49% |
50% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
37% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
36% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January–May 2009
| FEWER CLAIM CHANGES IN SHOPPING HABITS |
 Fewer shoppers polled recently report changing their behaviors as a result of the economic downturn vs. shoppers polled last August (Figure 3).
- Last August, three-quarters of shoppers said they had changed their shopping behaviors somewhat or significantly.
- Recently, slightly more than two-thirds (69%) of shoppers claim to have altered their habits this year.
Figure
3
How Much Downturn in Economy Changed Shopping Behavior This Year
| |
All Shoppers August 2008 |
|
All Shoppers
May 2009 |
| Significantly |
34% |
|
27% |
| Somewhat |
41% |
|
42% |
| Not very much |
20% |
|
25% |
| Not at all |
5% |
|
6% |
Highlighting/bolding indicates significance difference between August 2008 and May 2009 percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™ August 2008 and May 2009
Among shoppers reporting they have altered their behaviors, sizable percentages say they are using deal-seeking, limiting and trading-down tactics to save money. But many of those percentages are lower than the percentages reported by shoppers last August (Figure 4).
- Deal-seeking tactics. Using more coupons (45%) and buying in bulk quantities (21%) are just as popular as ways to save as they were last August. In contrast, the percentages of shoppers taking advantage of good sales/deals, doing more price comparison shopping and stocking up on items expected to rise in price have fallen.
- Limiting spending. Buying fewer things (53%) continues to be a common way to save money. Smaller percentages of shoppers are reporting using other methods to limit spending—buying only things they truly need, shopping less often, buying fewer luxury items, postponing purchases, fulfilling only near-term needs and keeping things longer before replacing them.
- Trading down. All trading down tactics—buying less expensive versions of products, buying more store brands, doing more shopping at discount retailers and trading down to less expensive brands—are being employed by smaller percentages of recently-polled shoppers. That being said, one-fifth to one-third of the 69% of shoppers who have altered their behaviors are trading down in some ways.
Figure
4
How Shopping Behavior Changed This Year?*
| |
All Shoppers
August 2008 |
|
All Shoppers May 2009 |
| Deal-seeking |
|
|
|
| Taking advantage of good sales/deals |
65% |
|
57% |
| Doing more price comparison shopping before making a purchase |
52% |
|
42% |
| Using more coupons |
47% |
|
45% |
| Buying in bulk quantities |
23% |
|
21% |
| Stocking up on items expected to rise in price |
21% |
|
18% |
| |
|
|
|
| Limiting spending |
|
|
|
| Buying only things I truly need |
65% |
|
61% |
| Buying fewer things |
55% |
|
53% |
| Shopping less often |
54% |
|
49% |
| Buying fewer luxury items |
51% |
|
43% |
| Postponing purchases |
47% |
|
43% |
| Buying only items needed in the near term |
40% |
|
31% |
| Using/keeping items longer before buying replacements |
35% |
|
29% |
| |
|
|
|
| Trading down |
|
|
|
| Buying less expensive versions of products |
45% |
|
33% |
| Buying more store brands instead of national or high-end brands |
43% |
|
31% |
| Doing more shopping at discount and value retailers |
37% |
|
28% |
| Trading down to less-expensive brands |
33% |
|
23% |
*Among shoppers who have significantly or somewhat changed their shopping habits due to the U.S. economy
Highlighting/bolding indicates significance difference between August 2008 and May 2009 percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™ August 2008 and May 2009
| MORE MINDFUL, LESS MATERIALISTIC SHOPPERS |
 Among shoppers reporting they have altered their behaviors, many shoppers intend to employ deal-seeking, limiting and trading-down tactics even after the economy improves. Fewer shoppers in May planned to permanently adopt those habits vs. shoppers last August. However, findings suggest shoppers are moving toward more mindful consumption (Figure 5).
- Among deal-seeking tactics, using more coupons is the only tactic not showing a drop-off in the percentage of shoppers planning to adopt the behavior permanently. In contrast, the percentages of shoppers engaging in activities that require “shopping around” have declined.
- With a couple of exceptions, tactics related to limiting spending have not fallen off in popularity as much as tactics related to trading down. This could signal a sea change away from buying the “next new thing” to more mindful purchasing.
Figure
5
Shopping Behaviors Likely to Continue as the Economy Improves.*
| |
All Shoppers
August 2008 |
|
All Shoppers
May 2009 |
| Deal-seeking |
|
|
|
| Taking advantage of good sales/deals |
57% |
|
49% |
| Doing more price comparison shopping before making a purchase |
42% |
|
35% |
| Using more coupons |
39% |
|
40% |
| Buying in bulk quantities |
17% |
|
15% |
| Stocking up on items expected to rise in price |
15% |
|
12% |
| |
|
|
|
| Limiting spending |
|
|
|
| Buying only things I truly need |
50% |
|
46% |
| Buying fewer things |
34% |
|
33% |
| Shopping less often |
34% |
|
31% |
| Buying fewer luxury items |
33% |
|
26% |
| Postponing purchases |
23% |
|
21% |
| Buying only items needed in the near term |
25% |
|
18% |
| Using/keeping items longer before buying replacements |
24% |
|
20% |
| |
|
|
|
| Trading down |
|
|
|
| Buying less expensive versions of products |
32% |
|
22% |
| Buying more store brands instead of national or high-end brands |
31% |
|
23% |
| Doing more shopping at discount and value retailers |
29% |
|
21% |
| Trading down to less-expensive brands |
20% |
|
13% |
| |
|
|
|
| None of the above |
3% |
|
3% |
*Among shoppers who have significantly or somewhat changed their shopping habits due to the U.S. economy
Highlighting/bolding indicates significance difference between August 2008 and May 2009 percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™ August 2008 and May 2009
 Shoppers plan to cut back on spending on Father’s Day gifts slightly from last year—but not as much as they did between 2007 and 2008 (Figure 6).
- Sixteen percent plan to spend much or somewhat less on Father’s Day this year vs. 14% last year and 7% in 2007.
- About half (48%) plan to spend about the same as they have previously while about one-third (32%) don’t buy Father’s Day gifts.
Figure
6
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less on Father's Day Compared with Last Year
| |
All Primary Shoppers 2007 |
All Primary Shoppers 2008 |
All Primary Shoppers
2009 |
| Much More |
2% |
2% |
1% |
| Somewhat More |
7% |
7% |
3% |
| About the same |
50% |
46% |
48% |
| Somewhat Less |
4% |
9% |
10% |
| Much Less |
3% |
5% |
6% |
| Do not plan to spend anything for Father's Day this year |
34% |
31% |
32% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, May 2007, 2008 and 2009
Father’s Day gift-givers plan to spend an average $78 on Dad this year. After greeting cards (64%), the most popular way to honor fathers will be to take them out to dinner (29%) (Figure 7).
- About one in five shoppers (22%) will prepare a special meal at home for Dad and about the same percentage (19%) will spruce up their father’s wardrobe with a clothing/shoe gift.
Figure
7
Amount Planning to Spend on Father's Day Gifts
| |
Percentage Planning to Purchase
2009 |
Average Amount Planning to
Spend 2009* |
| Greeting Cards |
64% |
$5 |
| Dinner at a restaurant |
29% |
$51 |
| Special meal at home |
22% |
$32 |
| Clothing/Shoes |
19% |
$43 |
| Gift Cards |
16% |
$45 |
| Books/CDs/DVDs |
11% |
$25 |
| Fragrances/Cologne |
7% |
$38 |
| Consumer Electronics |
7% |
$121 |
| Tools |
6% |
$58 |
| Other |
18% |
$53 |
| |
|
|
| Total planning to spend |
|
$78 |
Base = Shoppers planning to spend on Father's Day gifts
*Average dollar amount among those planning to spend on category
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, May 2008 and 2009
ShopperScape™ members will receive a more detailed analysis of current shopping trends and spending plans. ShopperScape™ members also can request assistance in custom analyses of this information by contacting Rachel McGuire at rmcguire@retailforward.com or Mandy Putnam at mputnam@retailforward.com.
Global Retailing Outlook, May 2009
The global financial crisis has caused consumer spending to slow worldwide, but the impacts will weigh heaviest on developed markets in 2009. Consequently, the retail growth opportunities that emerge in 2010 and beyond will be shuffled somewhat by the recent turmoil.
As the United Kingdom’s ranking on Retail Forward’s list of the best retail opportunities in the world sags, Brazil has muscled its way into a Top 10 list that is again led by China and Russia. The rankings are based on forecasts of retail spending through 2013 and measures of market risks.
India, Malaysia and South Africa are the other emerging retail markets on the Top 10 list, which also includes the developed retail markets of the United States, Australia and Canada. Among the 30 countries evaluated, three are in the “Best Opportunity” quadrant of Retail Forward’s Global Retail Opportunity Map: Australia, Malaysia and the United States. And six of the Top 10 best opportunity countries are among the largest retail markets in the world as forecast to 2013.
Frank Badillo
fbadillo@retailforward.com
For more information about RFIS reports and ShopperScape™, please contact
Katherine R. Clarke at kclarke@retailforward.com or 614-355-4009. |
What's
Retail Forward ShopperScape™?
Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today’s consumers and their shopping behaviors. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS’s online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at
614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp to view sample reports and learn more about how to access ShopperScape™ information. |
| 