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Welcome
to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter July 2007
- Except for consumer electronics retailers, expect homegoods channels to continue to be as flat as the housing market.
- Anticipate an increase in traffic-building promotions from retailers in small strip centers with grocery store anchors as shoppers shift away from this venue.
- Recognize that low income shoppers are struggling to pay for gas and groceries and traveling less often to almost all types of shopping centers.
- Expect some factory outlet/off-price shopping centers to see an uptick in shoppers especially at times when gasoline prices ease.
- Look for the consolidation in the number of stores shopped to abate until the next “big thing” happens that makes one-stop shopping a viable alternative to shopping around.
Shoppers Still Favoring Department Stores
TNS Retail Forward’s June ShopperScape™ survey findings echo the same pattern of disparity as seen in previous months between department stores and apparel specialty stores. Department stores have gained year-to-year shopper penetration at the expense of apparel specialty stores (Figure 1):
- Although the department store channel’s year-to-year increase has moderated to 7 percentage points from 11 percentage points last month, it outperforms other listed channels in capturing more shoppers compared with last year.
- The year-to-year increase of 4 percentage points for discount department stores/supercenters remained the same as last month’s YTY increase. With more than four out of five shoppers visiting, the channel will be challenged to further penetrate the shopper base.
- Consumer electronics retailers registered a 3 percentage point YTY increase in shoppers visiting the channel.
- Adult apparel specialty stores’ year-to-year past 4 week penetration of primary shoppers dipped 2 percentage points.
- Efforts to gain shoppers in housing-related channels stalled this month. Year-to-year comparisons for home improvement centers/hardware stores and home textiles/home furnishings stores were as flat as the housing market.
Figure
1
Percentage of Primary Shoppers Shopping Line of Trade in the Past 4 Weeks
|
All Primary Shoppers |
|
June,
2006 |
June,
2007 |
Y-T-Y Percentage Point Difference |
| Department Stores |
50% |
57% |
7 |
| Discount Stores/Supercenters |
81% |
85% |
4 |
| Consumer Electronic Stores |
30% |
33% |
3 |
| Home Improvement Centers/Hardware Stores |
57% |
57% |
0 |
| Home Textiles/Home Furnishings Stores |
28% |
27% |
-1 |
| Adult Apparel Specialty Stores |
48% |
46% |
-2 |
|
|
|
|
| As of January 2007, past four week shoppers are defined by shoppers selecting retailers from lists that organize retailers by channel. Previously, shoppers initially selected retailers they shopped during the past six months. Shoppers’ responses to this past six month question defined the list of retailers from which they selected the retailers they shopped during the past four weeks. |
| ShopperScape™ data is balanced to key demographics, which from January 2007 forward include race and ethnicity |
| Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ |
|
Shoppers Shift Away from Grocery-anchored Strip Centers
Last year the big shift was a 16 percentage point jump in the percentage of shoppers visiting the Web at least once a month for apparel-related goods vs. the previous year. This year that percentage has remained stable. Instead the big news is the 6 percentage point decline in shoppers visiting small grocery-anchored strip centers. (Figure 2).
- Almost all listed shopping venues experienced a decline in the percentage of shoppers visiting them at least once a month in June 2007 vs. July 2006. Some of this decline may be explained by the difference between June and July shopping patterns. But the percentages of shoppers stating that they never shop a particular venue has slightly increased across most of the venues, which suggests more than a seasonal influence on the findings.
- A small percentage—3 percentage points—of shoppers have shifted their shopping at “power centers” (large strip centers with at least a discount store, Kohl’s or category superstore) from monthly to less often.
- Of
more concern are the larger percentages of shoppers moving into the "never"
column for grocery-anchored strip centers (3 percentage points) and fashion/lifestyle
Meccas (4 percentage points).
Figure
2
How often do you shop, whether or not you purchase anything,
at each of the following types of shopping locations?
|
All Shoppers |
|
At Least Once a Month |
Once Every 2-6 Months |
Once a Year or Less |
Never |
|
July, 2005 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July, 2005 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July, 2005 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July, 2005 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
| Large, strip shopping center that includes at least one discount department store or Kohl's or a category superstore |
58% |
59% |
56% |
27% |
25% |
27% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
6% |
6% |
7% |
| Small to mid-sized strip shopping center that includes a supermarket |
58% |
55% |
49% |
20% |
22% |
24% |
12% |
13% |
15% |
11% |
10% |
13% |
| Internet site that sells clothing, shoes, or accessories |
27% |
43% |
42% |
26% |
28% |
28% |
20% |
14% |
15% |
28% |
15% |
16% |
| Large enclosed mall that includes many specialty stores and several department stores |
28% |
34% |
32% |
44% |
39% |
41% |
22% |
19% |
18% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
| Small strip shopping center where the largest stores are small specialty stores |
22% |
25% |
22% |
30% |
32% |
33% |
27% |
27% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
18% |
| Large mostly/totally non-enclosed shopping center/includes fashion-oriented specialty stores/may also include department stores, etc |
26% |
24% |
21% |
38% |
32% |
31% |
25% |
27% |
27% |
11% |
17% |
21% |
| Factory outlet/off-price shopping center |
13% |
10% |
13% |
28% |
30% |
30% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
20% |
21% |
21% |
| Big city downtown shopping district (that is not a mall) |
8% |
10% |
9% |
16% |
17% |
17% |
35% |
34% |
33% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
Down Market (lower income quartile) shoppers are most likely to have curtailed their shopping altogether at some venues in June 2007 vs. July 2006 (Figure 3).
- Given their resource constraints, Down Market shoppers are most likely to have stopped shopping at fashion/lifestyle centers (6 percentage point increase in “never shop”).
- Smaller but notable percentages of the Down Market have also shifted away from small grocery-anchored strip centers and Web sites selling apparel-related items.
- Only factory outlet/off-price shopping centers are seeing Down Market shoppers visiting more often this year.
Figure 3
How often do you shop, whether or not you purchase anything,
at each of the following types of shopping locations?
|
Down Market Shoppers |
|
At Least Once a Month |
Once Every 2-6 Months |
Once a Year or Less |
Never |
|
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July,
2006 |
June, 2007 |
July,
2006 |
June, 2007 |
| Large, strip shopping center that includes at least one discount department store or Kohl's or a category superstore |
50% |
49% |
24% |
24% |
15% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
| Small to mid-sized strip shopping center that includes a supermarket |
44% |
41% |
24% |
22% |
16% |
17% |
17% |
21% |
| Internet site that sells clothing, shoes, or accessories |
34% |
32% |
25% |
26% |
16% |
14% |
25% |
29% |
| Large enclosed mall that includes many specialty stores and several department stores |
25% |
23% |
32% |
37% |
28% |
23% |
16% |
18% |
| Small strip shopping center where the largest stores are small specialty stores |
21% |
20% |
25% |
25% |
28% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
| Large mostly/totally non-enclosed shopping center/includes fashion-oriented specialty stores/may also include department stores, etc |
19% |
16% |
23% |
23% |
31% |
27% |
28% |
34% |
| Factory outlet/off-price shopping center |
11% |
14% |
19% |
21% |
37% |
32% |
34% |
32% |
| Big city downtown shopping district (that is not a mall) |
11% |
9% |
14% |
15% |
27% |
26% |
49% |
49% |
As of January 2007 some income market definitions changed. The Down Market definition remained the same (annual household incomes less than $22,500), the Middle Market definition changed from $22,500–$74,999 to $22,500–$84,999 and the Up Market shopper definition changed from $75,000+ to $85,000+. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Middle Market shoppers are shifting their shopping patterns to less frequent shopping in most venues (Figure 4).
- The largest declines in monthly shopping among Middle Market shoppers occurred at “power centers” (-5 percentage points), small grocery-anchored strip centers (-8 percentage points) and specialty store-based strip centers (-5 percentage points).
- In contrast with Down Market shoppers, who often shifted to “never shopping” these venues, Middle Market shoppers generally report that they are shopping them less often—e.g., once every two to six months instead of monthly.
Figure 4
How often do you shop, whether or not you purchase anything,
at each of the following types of shopping locations?
|
Middle Market Shoppers |
|
At Least Once a Month |
Once Every 2-6 Months |
Once a Year or Less |
Never |
|
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July,
2006 |
June, 2007 |
July,
2006 |
June, 2007 |
| Large, strip shopping center that includes at least one discount department store or Kohl's or a category superstore |
61% |
56% |
25% |
29% |
9% |
10% |
6% |
5% |
| Small to mid-sized strip shopping center that includes a supermarket |
56% |
48% |
21% |
25% |
13% |
15% |
10% |
11% |
| Internet site that sells clothing, shoes, or accessories |
41% |
41% |
29% |
27% |
16% |
18% |
14% |
15% |
| Large enclosed mall that includes many specialty stores and several department stores |
34% |
32% |
41% |
42% |
19% |
19% |
7% |
7% |
| Large mostly/totally non-enclosed shopping center/includes fashion-oriented specialty stores/may also include department stores, etc |
23% |
20% |
33% |
33% |
28% |
29% |
17% |
19% |
| Small strip shopping center where the largest stores are small specialty stores |
24% |
19% |
33% |
35% |
29% |
29% |
15% |
17% |
| Factory outlet/off-price shopping center |
10% |
12% |
31% |
30% |
39% |
38% |
21% |
20% |
| Big city downtown shopping district (that is not a mall) |
9% |
8% |
16% |
17% |
34% |
34% |
42% |
41% |
As of January 2007 some income market definitions changed. The Down Market definition remained the same (annual household incomes less than $22,500), the Middle Market definition changed from $22,500–$74,999 to $22,500–$84,999 and the Up Market shopper definition changed from $75,000+ to $85,000+. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Less affected by rising gasoline prices, Up Market shoppers continue to shop most venues more often than other shoppers. But, like less affluent shoppers, they are shifting away from small grocery-anchored strip centers and shopping more often at factory outlet/off-price shopping centers (Figure 5).
- Their shopping frequencies at “power centers,” Web sites for apparel-related items, regional malls, fashion/lifestyle centers, specialty store-based strip centers and shopping districts in large cities have remained remarkably stable vs. this time last year.
Figure 5
How often do you shop, whether or not you purchase anything,
at each of the following types of shopping locations?
|
Up Market Shoppers |
|
At Least Once a Month |
Once Every 2-6 Months |
Once a Year or Less |
Never |
|
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July, 2006 |
June, 2007 |
July,
2006 |
June, 2007 |
July,
2006 |
June, 2007 |
| Large, strip shopping center that includes at least one discount department store or Kohl's or a category superstore |
65% |
65% |
25% |
26% |
7% |
7% |
3% |
3% |
| Small to mid-sized strip shopping center that includes a supermarket |
64% |
57% |
20% |
23% |
10% |
12% |
5% |
8% |
| Internet site that sells clothing, shoes, or accessories |
55% |
55% |
30% |
30% |
10% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
| Large enclosed mall that includes many specialty stores and several department stores |
41% |
41% |
44% |
43% |
12% |
12% |
3% |
4% |
| Large mostly/totally non-enclosed shopping center/includes fashion-oriented specialty stores/may also include department stores, etc |
29% |
29% |
39% |
37% |
24% |
23% |
9% |
12% |
| Small strip shopping center where the largest stores are small specialty stores |
29% |
29% |
39% |
37% |
23% |
23% |
9% |
11% |
| Factory outlet/off-price shopping center |
11% |
15% |
38% |
37% |
41% |
37% |
10% |
11% |
| Big city downtown shopping district (that is not a mall) |
11% |
12% |
21% |
21% |
39% |
36% |
29% |
31% |
As of January 2007 some income market definitions changed. The Down Market definition remained the same (annual household incomes less than $22,500), the Middle Market definition changed from $22,500–$74,999 to $22,500–$84,999 and the Up Market shopper definition changed from $75,000+ to $85,000+. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Number of Stores Shopped Hit a Low Last Fall
The other big news is that consolidation in the number of stores shopped by consumers seems to have leveled off. The average number of different retailers that primary shoppers indicated shopping during a past four-week time period steadily declined during the past couple of years. It reached a nadir last fall after back-to-school shopping season but seems to have stabilized at between 12 and 13 stores (Figure 6).
Figure 6
Average Number of Stores Shopped in Past 4 Weeks
Shopper Perspectives—Women Crossing Aisles
"Today’s busy consumers are motivated to do one-stop shopping when possible, but few are able to fulfill their needs in one place. Supercenters have displaced department stores as the leading venue for one-stop shopping, but on average female shoppers only visit 3.3 departments at Wal-Mart Supercenter and 2.7 at SuperTarget. Female supercenter shoppers can point out physical and aesthetic obstacles that discourage them from crossing aisles into more departments. However, when shoppers cross aisles, they often experience disappointment when retailers don’t meet expectations. Negative outcomes dampen their enthusiasm for future aisle-crossing."
Mandy Putnam, Vice President, TNS Retail Forward
For more information on Retail Perspectives and the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or email her at kclarke@retailforward.com.
| What's
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™?
TNS Retail
Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today's consumers and their shopping behaviors.
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample
of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information
about where consumers shop and what they buy. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
is administered through TNS/NFO's online household panel, weighted based to be
representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at
614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com.
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