To
view this email as a web page, click here. 
Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter September 2007
- With two-thirds
of back-to-school (BTS) spending under shoppers' belts, expect retailers to look
forward to Halloween and the upcoming holiday season to create reasons for shoppers
to spend.
-
Plan to promote beyond BTS to attract teen holdouts waiting to see what their
peers are wearing.
-
Expect BTS categories to get about the same share of the action as they did last
year—with apparel accounting for one-third of spending.
- Anticipate
continued convergence of shopping, socializing and media usage among online teens
but recognize the store as the hub for experiential shopping that teens seek.
Back-to-School
Spending Signals Softness TNS
Retail Forward's July ShopperScape™ findings on back-to-school (BTS) shopping
suggested a softer BTS season than last year. Revisiting the issue during late
August reveals that shoppers believe they are spending at least as much as they
did on BTS last year. However, adding up their estimates on spending for various
BTS categories signals that 2007 BTS spending will be modest compared with last
year. - BTS
spenders' perceptions of their planned spending during the third week of August
are more closely aligned with last year's estimates during the third week of July
2006 vs. July 2007 (Figure 1).
- Thirty-six
percent estimate their spending will increase vs. 37% in July 2006 and 32% in
July 2007.
- Forty-six
percent estimate their spending will remain about the same compared with last
year vs. 48% in July 2006 and 53% in July 2007.
- This
suggests that during the past month the reality of BTS spending has hit home with
shoppers. More now feel their BTS spending has increased from last year.
Figure
1
Plans to Spend on Back-to-School Relative to Last Year
|
Third week
July 2006 |
Third Week July 2007 |
Third Week
August 2007 |
| |
|
|
|
Much more/somewhat more |
37% |
32% |
36% |
About the same |
48% |
53% |
46% |
Somewhat less/much less |
13% |
13% |
14% |
This is the first year I will be making back-to-school purchases |
3% |
3% |
4% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
Last
month's newsletter comparisons between the same time periods in 2006 and 2007
showed 2007 BTS-to-date spending comparable with 2006. But fewer households planned
to spend during the rest of the season and estimated future spending was expected
to be down vs. last year. This month's newsletter results show total BTS average
spending at $571 (for households spending on BTS), consistent with last month's
estimate
(Figure 2).
- By the end of August, one-third of households had made BTS purchases and spent an average
of $427.
- About
two-thirds (67%) of planned BTS spending had been completed.
- Twenty-one
percent of shoppers still had some BTS shopping to do and estimated their spending
would equal an additional $315 on average.
- The
average estimated total BTS spending by BTS shoppers of $571 is not significantly
different from last month's newsletter estimate of $576—down from last year's
estimate of $596.
Figure
2
Comparisons between Back-to-School Estimated Spending 2006 and 2007
|
Third Week
July 2006 |
Third Week
July 2007 |
Third Week
August 2007 |
| |
|
|
|
Percentage of households spending on BTS |
16% |
15% |
33% |
Average estimated BTS spending by BTS shoppers |
$366 |
$365 |
$427 |
Estimated percentage of spending to date |
26% |
28% |
67% |
Percentage of households planning to spend during rest of BTS season |
35% |
31% |
21% |
Average estimated spending during rest of BTS season by BTS shoppers |
$492 |
$458 |
$315 |
Average estimated total BTS spending by BTS shoppers |
$596 |
$576 |
$571 |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
Last
month's newsletter results of the distribution of estimated total spending on
BTS by category suggested potential weakness in the computer category compared
with last year. However, this month's newsletter findings show the percentage
of spending represented by individual categories will likely not vary much vs.
last year (Figure 3).
Figure
3
Estimated Spending by Back-to-School Category
BTS Category |
Percentage of Total Estimated Spending
Third Week
July 2006 |
Percentage of Total Estimated Spending
Third Week
July 2007 |
Percentage of Total Estimated Spending
Third Week
August 2007 |
| |
|
|
|
Clothing |
33% |
34% |
33% |
Books |
12% |
13% |
14% |
Computers |
16% |
13% |
15% |
Shoes |
12% |
12% |
11% |
School supplies |
10% |
11% |
11% |
Backpacks/school bags |
4% |
4% |
4% |
Other electronics |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Dormitory furnishings/bedding/bath |
3% |
3% |
4% |
Computer software |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Other |
4% |
4% |
3% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
An
upcoming Shopper Perspectives report by TNS Retail Forward examines shopper journeys
for BTS among teenagers. One of the report's findings points out that online access
is propelling the convergence of leisure shopping, hanging out and media usage
among teens. Social networking sites, e.g., MySpace and Facebook, not only enable
connections among teens but also allow for participation in multiple activities—shopping,
hanging out and screening videos. However, teens still regard stores as providing
a level of experiential shopping they cannot access online.
Shopping
Alongside the Masses
Recent
ShopperScape™ findings show that affluent shoppers (household incomes of
$175,000+) often visit upscale channels to fill their apparel and home furnishings
needs but shop alongside the masses for consumer electronics. Affluent
shoppers are more likely to spend on consumer electronics within a three-month
time period and spend more than three times the amount on consumer electronics
than average (Figure 4). - Two-thirds
of affluent shoppers spent on consumer electronics during a past three-month period
compared with 54% of all primary shoppers.
- Affluent
shoppers spent $703 on consumer electronics during a three-month time period compared
with $223 among all primary shoppers.
- Affluent
shoppers making a consumer electronics purchase during a three-month period spent
$1,047 on average.
Figure
4
Spending on Consumer Electronics in the Past Three Months*
|
All Primary Shoppers
(n = 13,411) |
Affluent Primary Shoppers**
(n = 325) |
| |
|
|
Percentage spending |
54% |
66% |
Average spending (all shoppers) |
$223 |
$703 |
Average spending (purchasers) |
$411 |
$1,047 |
| |
*Surveyed in January 2007, April 2007 and July 2007 |
** Affluent shoppers are defined as primary shoppers in households with annual incomes of $175,000+. |
Highlighting indicates significant differences between all primary shoppers and affluent primary shoppers. |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
|
|
When
asked about their favorite place to shop for consumer electronics, affluent shoppers
most often (47%) said they have no favorite place (Figure 5). - Best
Buy was cited by one-third of affluent shoppers.
- Circuit
City received just 7% of the vote.
Figure
5
Favorite Place Where Affluent Shoppers Buy Consumer Electronics*
(n = 369)
Best
Buy | 33% |
Circuit
City | 7% |
Other
retailer | 13% |
No
favorite place | 47% |
| |
|
| |
*
Affluent shoppers are defined as primary shoppers in households with annual incomes
of $175,000+. |
|
Source:
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
|
Price,
convenience and selection are the main drivers of why affluent shoppers choose
to go to consumer electronics stores for consumer electronics (Figure 6).
- Affluent
shoppers are more likely than the general primary shopper population to shop at
consumer electronics stores due to convenient location, better selection and customer
loyalty programs.
- Several
affluent shoppers specifically mentioned Best Buy's loyalty program as the reason
why they shop the retailer.
Figure
6
Most Common Reasons Why Shoppers Spend the Most at Consumer Electronics Stores*
|
All Primary
Shoppers
(n = 2,390) |
Affluent
Primary
Shoppers
(n = 94) |
| |
|
|
Better price(s) for the item(s) I need |
55% |
49% |
Convenient location |
37% |
47% |
Better selection of products |
32% |
42% |
Item on sale/better sale prices |
22% |
13% |
Frequent shopper/rewards/loyalty program |
13% |
20% |
More helpful/knowledgeable associates |
13% |
14% |
Better return policy |
8% |
13% |
Better after-the-sale technical support |
7% |
11% |
Fun shopping experience |
4% |
8% |
| |
* Affluent shoppers are defined as primary shoppers in households with annual incomes of $175,000+. |
Highlighting indicates significant differences between all primary shoppers and affluent primary shoppers. |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
|
Shopper
Perspectives—Affluent Shoppers: In Pursuit of Luxury Goods
Affluent shoppers make a distinction between luxuries—niceties but not necessities—and high-end goods that are wise investments. They admit that high-end apparel purchases often fall into the luxury category and serve their emotional needs. They often turn to upscale department stores with carefully edited merchandise selections and salespeople whose tastes they trust. Rarely do they regret their impulse apparel purchases for long.
In contrast, homegoods purchases are often viewed as investments. Seasoned affluent shoppers selectively choose where to spend on homegoods. In some cases they regret having invested in goods that literally last a lifetime because their tastes have shifted. Most affluent shoppers buy their consumer electronics alongside the masses but often buy high-end, investment-type home furnishings/furniture alongside their designer/decorator. For the majority of purchases most affluent shoppers rely on retailers and manufacturers to support their shopper journeys.
Mandy
Putnam, Vice President, TNS Retail Forward For more information on Shopper Perspectives reports including “Affluent Shoppers: In Pursuit of Luxury Goods” and the TNS Retail Forward Intelligence System™ call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or email her at kclarke@retailforward.com.
| What's
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™? TNS
Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today's consumers and their shopping
behaviors. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November
2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date
information about where consumers shop and what they buy. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
is administered through TNS/NFO's online household panel, weighted based to be
representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at
614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp.
|
| 