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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter September 2009
AUGUST USHERS IN GUARDED OPTIMISM FOR FUTURE SPENDING
Near-term spending plans improved dramatically in August to the most optimistic outlook in more than a year. More than one-half of shoppers (53%) said they planned to spend about the same amount at retail stores as they did at this time last year. This is the first time since February 2008 that this share has exceeded 50%. At the same time, the percentage of shoppers saying they plan to spend less in the next month reached its lowest point in more than a year. The 38% in August was the lowest since February 2008 (Figure 1).
- Previous upticks in near-term spending plans—in February 2009 and May 2009—have been followed by returns to more pessimistic outlooks. However, the overall trend is positive. Each improvement and subsequent return to more guarded spending plans has been less negative than the previous one.
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores in the
Coming Month Compared to this Time Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008 to August 2009
PERCEPTIONS ABOUT HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL HEALTH STABILIZING
For the second month in a row, shoppers’ perceptions of their households’ financial health improved or remained the same in all six areas measured in ShopperScape™ (Figure 2).
- Most notably, the downtrend in job security and household income seems to be leveling off.
Figure 2
Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year
|
|
Jan-09 |
Feb-09 |
Mar-09 |
Apr-09 |
May-09 |
Jun-09 |
Jul-09 |
Aug-09 |
|
Job security of employed household members |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
15% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
61% |
60% |
59% |
60% |
61% |
59% |
61% |
61% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
25% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
27% |
25% |
24% |
|
Household income level |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
30% |
29% |
26% |
27% |
26% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
43% |
43% |
42% |
42% |
43% |
42% |
45% |
45% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
27% |
28% |
32% |
31% |
31% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
|
Credit card debt level |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
24% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
24% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
52% |
55% |
53% |
52% |
55% |
52% |
53% |
55% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
21% |
22% |
22% |
20% |
22% |
22% |
21% |
|
Monthly mortgage and car payments |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
17% |
18% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
19% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
70% |
68% |
69% |
68% |
68% |
68% |
68% |
67% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
12% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
|
Worth of household members' investments |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
14% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
39% |
39% |
37% |
38% |
42% |
40% |
43% |
44% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
52% |
52% |
54% |
53% |
47% |
49% |
45% |
41% |
|
Value of my home |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
14% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
50% |
49% |
48% |
49% |
50% |
51% |
49% |
52% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
37% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
33% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January - August 2009
IMPROVED OUTLOOK TOO LATE TO SAVE DREARY BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON
The lingering effects of the recession are still apparent in back-to-school (BTS) shoppers’ behavior through the third week of August. The percentage of BTS shoppers who said they planned to spend less overall on back-to-school this year increased significantly from last year, from 20% to 25%. (Figure 3)
Figure 3
Plans to Spend on Back-to-School 2009 vs. 2008 and 2007
|
|
Aug-07 |
Aug-08 |
Aug-09 |
|
Plans to spend… |
|
||
|
Much more/somewhat more |
37% |
35% |
30% |
|
About the same |
44% |
40% |
41% |
|
Somewhat less/much less |
14% |
20% |
25% |
|
This is the first year I will be making back-to-school purchases |
4% |
5% |
4% |
Note: bolding/highlighting indicates an August 2009 percentage that is
significantly greater than the percentage for August 2008 (90% confidence level)
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™
Shoppers are following through on their plans to spend less according to their estimates of what they’ve spent and planned to spend on BTS (Figure 4).
- More than one-third (36%) of households will participate in BTS shopping this year, down from 40% last year.
- Both the amounts shoppers have already spent and still plan to spend on BTS are lower than previous years, as is the total amount that shoppers will spend on BTS.
- Nearly two-thirds (64%) of shoppers’ total BTS budget was spent by the third week in August—about the same percentage that was spent at that point last year.
Figure 4
Back-to-School Estimated Spending
|
|
Aug-07 |
Aug-08 |
Aug-09 |
|
Percentage of households already spent or plan to spend on BTS this year |
42% |
40% |
36% |
|
|
|
||
|
Percentage of households spending on BTS by third week in August |
36% |
34% |
30% |
|
Average estimated BTS spending by third week in August by BTS shoppers |
$434 |
$343 |
$289 |
Estimated percentage of spending to date |
67% |
61% |
64% |
|
|
|
||
|
Percentage of households planning to spend during rest of BTS season |
24% |
24% |
19% |
|
Average estimated spending during rest of BTS season by BTS shoppers |
$327 |
$302 |
$256 |
|
|
|
||
|
Average estimated total BTS spending by BTS shoppers |
$556 |
$465 |
$382 |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, August 2007, August 2008 and August 2009
Slight shifts occurred in how BTS dollars were divided among categories of BTS items. Categories on which BTS shoppers spent more of their budget this year included shoes, books and school supplies, at the expense of clothing and computers (Figure 5).
Figure 5
Estimated Spending by Back-to-School Category
|
|
Percentage Point Difference (2008-2009) |
|||
|
BTS Category |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
|
Clothing |
32% |
35% |
34% |
-1 |
|
Shoes |
11% |
12% |
13% |
+1 |
|
Books |
14% |
11% |
14% |
+3 |
|
Computers |
15% |
15% |
13% |
-2 |
|
School supplies |
11% |
11% |
12% |
+1 |
|
Backpacks/school bags |
4% |
4% |
4% |
0 |
|
Dormitory furnishings/bedding/bath |
4% |
3% |
3% |
0 |
|
Computer software |
2% |
2% |
2% |
0 |
|
Other electronics |
3% |
3% |
3% |
0 |
|
Other |
3% |
3% |
2% |
-1 |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, August 2007, August 2008 and August 2009
ANOTHER BAH-HUMBUG HOLIDAY COULD BE BREWING
While out shopping for BTS, a small percentage (10%) of shoppers did some early holiday shopping (Figure 6). The biggest beneficiaries of holiday purchases during BTS shopping were discount stores/supercenters.
Figure 6
Early Holiday Shopping
|
|
BTS Shoppers |
|
Percentage of BTS shoppers making holiday purchases while BTS shopping |
10% |
|
|
|
|
Where did you make holiday purchases while BTS shopping? |
|
|
Discount stores/supercenters |
45% |
|
Value department store retailers |
28% |
|
Dollar stores or close-out retailers |
12% |
|
Traditional department store retailers |
13% |
|
Traditional specialty apparel retailers |
13% |
|
Warehouse clubs |
9% |
|
Off-price specialty apparel retailers |
10% |
|
Drug store retailers |
9% |
|
Office supply retailers |
10% |
|
Upscale department store retailers |
9% |
|
Consumer electronics retailers |
5% |
|
Supermarkets |
6% |
|
Other retailers |
19% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, August 2009
Early reads on holiday spending plans show shoppers’ outlooks are cautious. A large percentage (43%) is planning to spend less than they did last holiday (Figure 7).
- Shoppers in the Midwest—which includes the hard-hit “rust belt”—and the West are most cautious.
- In contrast, Southern shoppers are more likely to say they plan to spend more than they did last year, while Northeasterners are more likely to plan to spend the same amount as they did last year.
Figure 7
Plans to Spend on December Holidays
|
|
All
|
West |
Midwest |
South |
Northeast |
|
|
Sample Size |
4273 |
|
925 |
983 |
1578 |
787 |
|
Spend much more/somewhat more than last year |
7% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
|
|
Spend about the same as last year |
45% |
42% |
43% |
47% |
48% |
|
|
Spend somewhat less/much less than last year |
43% |
46% |
46% |
41% |
40% |
|
|
Do not spend on holiday gifts |
5% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
6% |
Note: Bolding/highlighting indicates a percentage significantly greater than the percentage for all shoppers (90% confidence level)
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, August 2009
ShopperScape™ members will receive more a more detailed analysis of current shopping trends and spending plans. ShopperScape™ members also can request assistance in custom analyses of this information by contacting Rachel McGuire (rmcguire@retailforward.com) or Mandy Putnam (mputnam@retailforward.com).
Retail Forward releases American ShopperScape™ 2009!
The recession has changed how shoppers allocate their money, how they shop and—in some cases—where they shop. Some of these changes will persist but others already show signs of “recession weariness” as fewer shoppers report using some tactics employed to save money. Each generational cohort is changing its shopping behaviors in distinct ways. This new annual report analyzes the shopping behaviors of thousands of consumers that Retail Forward studies as part of its ongoing tracking survey. Each month, ShopperScape™ surveys 4,000 primary household shoppers about where they’re shopping, what they’re buying and why. This report is available to members of Retail Forward’s ShopperScape™.
To learn more about ShopperScape™ or to schedule a demo for your shopper insights team, contact Katherine Clarke at kclarke@retailforward.com or 614.355.4009.
Register for Retail Forward’s 2009 Strategic Outlook Conference, “Retail Renewal”!
If you direct your company’s strategy, operations, marketing, shopper insights, category management or market research initiatives, this event is one you shouldn’t miss! Join hundreds of senior executives from leading retailers and branded manufacturers for a day of inspiration. Take away practical solutions and innovative ideas that will make an immediate and meaningful impact on your business as we head into an era of Retail Renewal. To register and learn more, click on the Retail Renewal banner ad on our home page at www.retailforward.com.
What's Retail Forward ShopperScape™? Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today’s consumers and their shopping behaviors. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS’s online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp to view sample reports and learn more about how to access ShopperScape™ information. |
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