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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter October 2007
- Anticipate
fallout from "made in China" toys to increase holiday season concerns for retailers
and provide parents rationales for pulling back on spending.
- Also
expect pet parents to be cautious about the chow they’re feeding their four-legged
family members.
- Look
for selective modification of “made in China” purchases rather than
total boycotts.
- Prepare
for the ghost of Halloween to haunt retailers this year as fewer shoppers participate
in witching night.
- Expect
shoppers to enter the holiday season with more frugal mindsets than last year.
Made
in China: Plenty of Blame Going Around TNS
Retail Forward’s ShopperScape™ surveyed primary shoppers in households
in late September about their awareness and perceptions of recalled products made
in China. Recalls of children’s and pet products are most memorable (Figure
1). - Topping
the list of most memorable Chinese import recalls are infant’s and children’s
toys with almost three-quarter awareness (74%) among shoppers.
- About
half (48%) of shoppers are aware of the pet food recall.
- Toothpaste (42%)
and baby supplies and furniture (25%) recalls are also remembered among significant
percentages of shoppers.
- Only 16% of shoppers said they are not aware
of any recalls of products made in China.
Considering
that the Pew Research Center recently found that 31% of Americans cannot name
our Vice President, Chinese-made product recalls, by comparison, have a high level
of awareness etched in the minds of shoppers.
Figure
1 Which
of the following types of products from China,
if any, are you aware of as being recently recalled?
| | Infants
and children's toys | 74% |
Pet
food | 48% |
Toothpaste | 42% |
Baby
supplies and furniture | 25% |
Seafood | 14% |
Fruits
and vegetables | 9% |
Non-prescription/'over-the-counter'
medicine | 7% |
Furniture | 4% |
Batteries | 4% |
Seasonings/spices/herbs | 3% |
Electrical
household products | 2% |
Power
tools | 2% |
Glassware | 2% |
None | 16% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™,
September 2007
One
reason infants' and children's toys and pet food recalls are remembered is the
personal effects of these recalls on some shoppers. However, most shoppers
(73%) have not been affected personally (Figure 2). - Most
affected were buyers of pet food (14%) followed by toy buyers (11%).
- Awareness
of toothpaste and baby supplies and furniture recalls is higher-than-expected
considering the low percentages of shoppers (4% for toothpaste and 1% for baby
supplies and furniture) affected by those recalls.
Figure
2 Which
of the recent recalls has affected you personally?*
| | Shoppers
Aware of Recall | | Pet
food | 14% |
| Infants
and children's toys | 11% |
| Toothpaste | 4% |
| Fruits
and vegetables | 2% |
| Seafood | 2% |
| Baby
supplies and furniture | 1% |
| Non-prescription/'over-the-counter'
medicine | 1% |
| Batteries | 1% |
| Seasonings/spices/herbs | <1% |
| Electrical
household products | <1% |
| Glassware | <1% |
| Power
tools | <1% |
| Furniture | <1% |
| None | 73% |
*Among shoppers who are aware of the recall
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2007
Shoppers
are more likely to blame U.S. manufacturers using Chinese manufacturers for production
(56%) than to blame Chinese manufacturers (46%) for the recalls (Figure 3). - Shoppers
also spread blame to plenty of other parties—U.S. government inspectors
(45%), U.S. retailers directly importing goods from China (42%), U.S. retailers
buying from companies that import goods from China (40%), Chinese government inspectors
(38%) and U.S. trade policy makers (27%).
- In
fact, only 10% of shoppers who are aware of any recalls don’t blame anyone.
| | Shoppers
Aware of Recall | | U.S.
manufacturers using Chinese manufacturers for production | 56% |
| Chinese
manufacturers | 46% |
| U.S.
government inspectors | 45% |
| U.S.
retailers directly importing goods from China | 42% |
| U.S.
retailers buying from companies that import goods from China | 40% | | Chinese
government inspectors | 38% |
| U.S.
trade policy makers | 27% |
| Don't
blame anyone | 10% |
*Among shoppers who are aware of a recall
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2007
Blame,
however, does not necessarily lead to change in shopping behavior. Relatively
small percentages of shoppers say they will permanently (6%) or temporarily (5%)
boycott Chinese-made products. Most shoppers are selectively avoiding only
some products made in China (Figure 4).
- Almost
one-third (30%) state they are doing "none of the above." Another
15% say that their shopping behavior hasn’t changed because many of the
products they buy are made in China.
- The
remaining 55% of shoppers are avoiding Chinese-made products in some way.
The largest percentage (29%) is avoiding buying Chinese products when feasible.
Another 17% is selectively not buying certain products.
Figure
4 Which
one of the following statements best describes your
current shopping behavior
regarding products made in China?
| | All
Shoppers | | Many
of the products I buy are made in China so I haven't changed my shopping behavior. |
15% |
| I
avoid buying products from China when I can. |
29% |
| I'm
selectively not buying certain products from China for now. |
17% |
| I'm
actively boycotting buying products from China until I know they are safe. |
5% |
| I
won't buy products from China again. |
6% |
| None
of the above |
30% |
Source:
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2007
 Scary
Halloween
Compared
with last year, fewer shoppers plan to spend on Halloween. Last year three-quarters
of shoppers planned to spend on Halloween. This year only two-thirds plan
to participate (Figure 5).
- The
majority of change in Halloween spending plans is the shift in percentage from
shoppers planning to spend about the same as they did compared with the previous
year (-9%) to shoppers not planning to spend at all (+7%).
- Down
Market shoppers are least likely to participate this year in Halloween.
Figure
5 Compared
to last year, do you plan to spend more, the same, or less this year on Halloween?
| All
Shoppers | Down
Market | Middle
Market | Up
Market | | | 2006 | 2007 | 2007 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Much
more | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Somewhat
more | 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| About
the same | 50% | 41% | 32% | 40% | 52% |
| Somewhat
less | 9% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 12% |
| Much
less | 8% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| Do
not spend on Halloween | 25% | 32% | 41% | 33% | 21% |
Source:
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2007 The
amount that this year's Halloween participants plan to spend compared with last
year declines only slightly from $53 last year to $51 this year. However,
when percentages of shoppers not planning to spend anything on Halloween are factored
into the total average spending estimate, the decline is significant—from
$40 in 2006 to $34 in 2007 (Figure 6).
- The
"other" category shows the most substantial decline in the estimate
from last year—from $32 to $22, suggesting that spending on "extras"
will drop.
- Spending
on mainstays such as candy and costumes is expected to remain equivalent with
last year.
- Perhaps
able to recycle last year's popular yard inflatables, fewer shoppers plan to spend
on indoor and/or outdoor decorations.
Figure
6
Comparisons between Halloween Estimated Spending 2006 and 2007
| 2006 | 2007 |
| Total
Average estimated spending on Halloween among All Shoppers |
$40
| $34
| | Total
Average estimated spending on Halloween among Shoppers Planning to Spend on Halloween |
$53
| $51
| | |
| |
| Percentage
of households spending on Greeting Cards |
20% | 21% |
| Average
estimated Greeting Cards spending |
$10
| $9
| | |
| |
| Percentage
of households spending on Candy |
89% | 89% |
| Average
estimated Candy spending |
$20
| $19
| | |
| |
| Percentage
of households spending on Costumes |
37% | 37% |
| Average
estimated Costumes spending |
$40
| $41
| | |
| |
| Percentage
of households spending on Indoor Decorations |
28% | 25% |
| Average
estimated Indoor Decorations spending |
$24
| $21
| | |
| |
| Percentage
of households spending on Outdoor Decorations |
31% | 28% |
| Average
estimated Outdoor Decorations spending |
$26
| $26
| | |
| |
| Percentage
of households spending on Other |
10% | 8% |
| Average
estimated Other spending |
$32
| $22
| Source:
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2007 Planning
to Pull Back on Holiday Spending
The
vast majority (95%) of shoppers will buy holiday gifts this year
but many plan to exert more caution in opening their wallets wide (Figure
7).
- This
year’s shoppers are less likely to plan to spend somewhat more or about
the same as last year and more likely to plan to spend less on holiday gifts.
- Even
the Up Market shoppers are showing some caution about holiday spending with percentages
of those planning to spend less greater than percentages of those planning to
spend more. However, the vast majority (69%) plans to hold the line compared
with last year.
Figure
7
Compared to last year, do you plan to spend more, the same,
or less this
year on holiday gifts including gift cards?
| | All
Shoppers | Down
Market | Middle
Market | Up
Market | | September
2006 | September
2007 | September
2007 | September
2007 | September
2007 | | Much
more |
2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Somewhat
more |
11% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 9% |
| About
the same |
62% | 58% | 47% | 59% | 69% |
| Somewhat
less |
13% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 14% |
| Much
less |
8% | 10% | 18% | 10% | 4% |
| Do
not spend on holiday gifts |
4% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
Source:
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ Industry
Outlook—Branded Apparel Suppliers Branded
apparel suppliers have borne the brunt of retail consolidation, consumer behavior
changes and apparel deflation during the past few years. Yet, most suppliers
were slow to react to the changing business environment. In fact, it was
only the failed attempt of Jones Apparel Group to sell itself last year that truly
revealed how obsolete the traditional branded supplier business model has become.
Since then, many of the leading players have begun in earnest to reorganize and
restructure their operations to survive amid today’s retail realities.
Kelly
Tackett, Senior Consultant, TNS Retail Forward
For
more information on “Industry Outlook: Branded Apparel Suppliers””
and the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ contact Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009
or kclarke@retailforward.com.
| What's
TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™? TNS
Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today's consumers and their shopping
behaviors. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November
2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date
information about where consumers shop and what they buy. TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
is administered through TNS/NFO's online household panel, weighted based to be
representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at
614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp.
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