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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter October 2009
TEETERING BACK TO CAUTIOUS NEAR-TERM SPENDING INTENTIONS
After a marked uptick in near-term spending intentions in August, shoppers have teetered back to a more cautious near-term outlook in September (Figure 1).
- The percentage of shoppers who plan to spend more in the coming month held steady at 9%, but the percentage of shoppers planning to spend the same declined from 52%—the highest percentage in more than a year—to 44%.
- The percentage of shoppers planning to cut back increased significantly—from 38% to 47%.
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores
in the Coming Month Compared with Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008 – September 2009
Shoppers’ views about their households’ finances continue to be mixed (Figure 2).
- On the positive side, shoppers are gradually feeling better about their household investments as the stock market recovers and the residential real estate market levels off.
- The percentage of shoppers feeling better off about their credit card debt levels outweighs those who feel worse off. And, the percentage spread between better and worse off is widening, which suggests shoppers are doing a better job of managing credit card debt.
- On the other hand, shoppers’ perceptions about their household income levels are more negative than they have been all year. The result of stagnant household income growth coupled with paying down debt is limited spending at retail.
Figure 2
Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year
|
|
Jan-09 |
Feb-09 |
Mar-09 |
Apr-09 |
May-09 |
Jun-09 |
Jul-09 |
Aug-09 |
Sep-09 |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Job security of employed household members |
|||||||||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
15% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
61% |
60% |
59% |
60% |
61% |
59% |
61% |
61% |
60% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
25% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
27% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Household income level |
|||||||||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
30% |
29% |
26% |
27% |
26% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
43% |
43% |
42% |
42% |
43% |
42% |
45% |
45% |
43% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
27% |
28% |
32% |
31% |
31% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
33% |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Credit card debt level |
|||||||||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
24% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
24% |
26% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
52% |
55% |
53% |
52% |
55% |
52% |
53% |
55% |
53% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
24% |
21% |
22% |
22% |
20% |
22% |
22% |
21% |
21% |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Monthly mortgage and car payments |
|||||||||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
17% |
18% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
19% |
18% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
70% |
68% |
69% |
68% |
68% |
68% |
68% |
67% |
69% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
12% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Worth of household members' investments |
|||||||||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
14% |
17% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
39% |
39% |
37% |
38% |
42% |
40% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
52% |
52% |
54% |
53% |
47% |
49% |
45% |
41% |
40% |
|
|
|||||||||
|
Value of my home |
|||||||||
|
Much/Somewhat Better Off |
14% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
|
No Change from Last Year |
50% |
49% |
48% |
49% |
50% |
51% |
49% |
52% |
51% |
|
Somewhat/Much Worse Off |
37% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
33% |
33% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, January - September 2009
FEWER TREATS THIS YEAR
This year, fewer shoppers are participating in Halloween, which will adversely affect Halloween spending (Figure 3).
- This year 34% of shoppers won’t participate in Halloween vs. 30% last year.
- Halloween participants are most likely to spend about the same amount as they did last year on Halloween.
Figure 3
Compared to Last Year, Do You Plan to Spend More, the Same, or Less This Year on Halloween?
|
|
All Shoppers |
|||
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
Spend much/somewhat more |
8% |
5% |
7% |
5% |
Spend about the same |
50% |
41% |
34% |
34% |
Spend much/somewhat less |
17% |
21% |
29% |
28% |
Do not spend on Halloween |
25% |
32% |
30% |
34% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009
Total spending on Halloween among all shoppers is expected to decline to $29 on average; but, spending among Halloween participants is estimated to rise from $44 last year to $49 this year on average. It looks as if candy will take a major hit—perhaps from shoppers who don’t expect visits from “trick or treaters” but may have treated themselves to Halloween goodies in the past (Figure 4).
- The average amount spent on candy by candy-buying households ($18) is expected to remain the same as last year, but fewer households (57%) plan to buy Halloween candy.
- There may be a few more costume buyers (27% of shoppers) this year, but they won’t be spending quite as much ($38 on average) as they did last year.
- Spending on indoor and outdoor decorations is expected to be about the same as last year.
- Spending on greeting cards is estimated to be the same as last year with 12% of shoppers buying Halloween greeting cards and spending an average of $8.
Figure 4
Comparisons among Estimated Halloween Spending
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
|
Total Average estimated spending on Halloween among All Shoppers |
$40 |
$34 |
$31 |
$29 |
|
Total Average estimated spending on Halloween among Shoppers Planning to Spend on Halloween |
$53 |
$51 |
$44 |
$49 |
|
Percentage of all households spending on Candy |
67% |
60% |
61% |
57% |
|
Average estimated Candy spending* |
$20 |
$19 |
$18 |
$18 |
|
Percentage of all households spending on Costumes |
28% |
28% |
25% |
27% |
|
Average estimated Costumes spending* |
$40 |
$41 |
$39 |
$38 |
|
Percentage of all households spending on Outdoor Decorations |
23% |
19% |
17% |
17% |
|
Average estimated Outdoor Decorations spending* |
$26 |
$26 |
$25 |
$24 |
|
Percentage of all households spending on Indoor Decorations |
21% |
18% |
16% |
16% |
|
Average estimated Indoor Decorations spending* |
$24 |
$21 |
$19 |
$19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percentage of all households spending on Greeting Cards |
15% |
14% |
12% |
12% |
|
Average estimated Greeting Cards spending* |
$10 |
$9 |
$8 |
$8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percentage of all households spending on Other |
8% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
|
Average estimated Other spending* |
$32 |
$22 |
$21 |
$21 |
*Among shoppers planning to spend on the category
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009
HOLIDAY IMPROVEMENT FROM AUGUST
Although shoppers are cautious about opening their wallets for holiday gifts at this point in the season, they show signs of becoming less tightfisted as the season draws nearer (Figure 5).
- The percentage of shoppers planning to spend less on holiday gifts this season outweigh those planning to spend more by a ratio of slightly more than 4:1; but, this is significantly less than the 6:1 ratio noted in August.
Figure 5
Compared to Last Year, Do You Plan to Spend More, the Same, or
Less This Year on Holiday Gifts Including Gift Cards?
|
All Shoppers |
||
|
August |
September 2009 |
|
|
Spend much/somewhat more |
7% |
9% |
|
Spend about the same |
45% |
46% |
|
Spend much/somewhat less |
43% |
40% |
|
Do not spend on holiday gifts |
5% |
5% |
Highlighting/bolding indicates significant differences between column percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, August and September 2009
As noted last year, discount stores/supercenters are the most common channel planned for holiday shopping this year (Figure 6). Other places where large percentages of shoppers plan to check off items on their gift lists range from department stores (especially value department stores) to online retailers.
- Of note, one out of five shoppers plans to visit small-format value retailers and/or factory outlet stores to buy gifts—almost as many as those planning to shop at toy stores.
Figure 6
Percentage of Shoppers Planning to Shop for Holiday Gifts at Retailer Types
Percentage of Shoppers Planning
|
|
|
Discount store/supercenter retailers |
50% |
|
Value department store retailers |
42% |
|
Online retailers (e.g., Amazon.com, Zappos.com) |
38% |
|
Book and media retailers |
27% |
|
Traditional department store retailers |
24% |
|
Warehouse clubs |
23% |
|
Toy retailers |
22% |
|
Factory outlet stores |
19% |
|
Small-format value store retailers (e.g., Dollar General, Big Lots) |
18% |
|
Grocery stores/supermarkets |
17% |
|
Crafts or fabrics retailers |
13% |
|
Consumer electronics/appliance/computer retailers |
13% |
|
Specialty apparel store retailers |
11% |
|
Personal care and beautry retailers |
11% |
|
Drug store retailers |
10% |
|
Sporting goods retailers |
9% |
|
Home improvement/hardware store retailers |
9% |
|
Home furnishings/domestics retailers |
6% |
|
Upscale department store retailers |
5% |
|
Shoe store retailers |
5% |
|
Jewelry store retailers |
4% |
|
Office supply retailers |
3% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2009
ECONOMIC STIMULUS FOR SOME AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS
About 13% of shoppers have made a purchase tied to some type of economic stimulus program. The most popular types have been energy-saving home improvements or energy-efficient purchases, which qualify for tax incentives (Figure 7).
- In about six out of 10 cases, shoppers have either significantly or somewhat reduced their spending in other areas to offset purchases of “clunker replacements,” first homes or energy-savings products/home improvements (Figure 8).
Figure 7
Percentage of Households Participating in Programs
| Tax incentives for qualifying energy-savings home improvements or energy-efficient purchases | 9% |
|
Tax incentives for first-time house buyers |
3% |
|
Cash for clunkers |
2% |
|
Total |
13% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2009
Figure 8
Impact of Program Participation
|
Have significantly reduced spending in other areas |
27% |
|
Have somewhat reduced spending in other areas |
32% |
|
Have not reduced spending in other areas |
36% |
|
Have increased spending in other areas |
5% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2009
GIMME A BREAK FROM THE RECESSION
It appears that the much-touted “staycation” of summer was more common than it was popular. More than one-third (35%) of shoppers postponed their vacations due to the recession (Figure 9).
- Taking a vacation ranks first among purchases shoppers plan to make when the economy improves.
- Clothing followed by cars and home furnishings and then consumer electronics also are among purchases that sizable percentages of shoppers plan to purchase first.
- Almost four in 10 (38%) have not postponed purchases due to the recession.
Figure 9
Percentage of Shoppers Postponing Purchases and
First Purchase Intend to Make When Economy Improves
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, September 2009
ShopperScape™ members will receive more a more detailed analysis of current shopping trends and spending plans. ShopperScape™ members also can request assistance in custom analyses of this information by contacting Rachel McGuire (rmcguire@retailforward.com) or Mandy Putnam (mputnam@retailforward.com).
REGISTER TODAY FOR RETAIL FORWARD’S 2009 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE, “RETAIL RENEWAL”—Spend a day with the greatest minds in retail strategy and shopper insights. Register to attend THE retail industry's marquee event for executives of leading global retailers and branded manufacturers. Membership in the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ and ShopperScape™ includes complimentary seats to this annual event! Take advantage of this important member benefit and sign up today! If you direct your company's strategy, operations, marketing, shopper insights, category management or market research initiatives, this event is one you shouldn't miss! Take away practical solutions and innovative ideas that will make an immediate and meaningful impact on your business as we head into a new era of Retail Renewal. To view the conference agenda and to register, click here.
Dates and Locations: Oct. 15, 2009—Toronto Congress Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; and Oct. 27, 2009—Embassy Suites Hotel, Spa & Convention Center, Bentonville, AR.
What's Retail Forward ShopperScape™? Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today’s consumers and their shopping behaviors. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS’s online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp to view sample reports and learn more about how to access ShopperScape™ information. |
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