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Welcome to the ShopperScape™
Newsletter December 2009
SHOPPER SENTIMENT CHEERING UP FOR THE HOLIDAYS
More than the majority of shoppers (53%) plan to maintain near-term spending levels comparable with last year’s—a significant improvement from shopper sentiment last year at this time (Figure 1).
- The percentage of shoppers planning to curb their near-term spending declined from 54% to 37% year-to-year as shoppers catch the holiday spirit.
- However, few shoppers (10%) are planning larger shopping sprees than last year.
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores in the Coming Month
Compared to This Time Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2008–November 2009
Job security and lack of gains in household incomes continue to dampen shoppers’ perceptions of their household’s financial health (Figure 2).
- Shoppers feel better off about their debt levels—credit cards and monthly mortgage and car payments—compared with last year.
- And, shoppers are feeling more positive about their investments and home values than last year. However, those feeling worse off still far outnumber those feeling better off. The era of “letting the good times roll” has passed.
Figure 2
Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year
Nov-09 |
Nov-09 |
|
| Sample Size | 4110 |
4149 |
| Job security of employed household members | ||
| Much/Somewhat Better Off | 16% |
16% |
| No Change from Last Year | 61% |
61% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off | 23% |
23% |
| Household income level | ||
| Much/Somewhat Better Off | 27% |
23% |
| No Change from Last Year | 43% |
46% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off | 30% |
31% |
| Credit card debt level | ||
| Much/Somewhat Better Off | 23% |
24% |
| No Change from Last Year | 52% |
55% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off | 25% |
21% |
| Monthly mortgage and car payments | ||
| Much/Somewhat Better Off | 16% |
19% |
| No Change from Last Year | 69% |
68% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off | 15% |
13% |
| Worth of household members' investments | ||
| Much/Somewhat Better Off | 9% |
19% |
| No Change from Last Year | 38% |
47% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off | 53% |
34% |
| Value of my home | ||
| Much/Somewhat Better Off | 14% |
16% |
| No Change from Last Year | 50% |
53% |
| Somewhat/Much Worse Off | 36% |
31% |
Highlighting/bolding indicates significant difference between
November 2008 and November 2009 percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2008 and November 2009
HOLIDAY SPENDING SENTIMENT UP FROM LAST YEAR
Holiday gift shoppers are more likely to loosen the purse strings than last year but also are more frugal entering the 2009 holiday than they were in 2007. Holiday 2007 turned out to be more ho-hum than ho-ho as the country entered the recession but it was not dreadful as was the holiday 2008 season. Current shopper sentiment suggests a holiday 2009 somewhere between the two (Figure 3).
- Slightly more shoppers (9%) plan to spend more compared with last year vs. shoppers in 2008 (7%).
- Forty-two percent intend to spend about the same amount on gifts as they did last year—up from the 35% in 2008 but less than the 48% in 2007.
As holiday shopping plans are put into action, shoppers are becoming a little less cautious about opening their wallets. Gift-spending sentiment improved slightly between October’s and November’s poll.
Figure 3
How Much Shoppers Plan to Spend on Holidays Compared with Last Year
Primary Shoppers 2007 |
Primary Shoppers 2008 |
Primary Shoppers 2009 |
|
| Sample Size | 4023 |
4042 |
4126 |
| A lot more | 3% |
2% |
2% |
| Somewhat more | 11% |
5% |
7% |
| About the same amount | 48% |
35% |
42% |
| Somewhat less | 21% |
28% |
25% |
| A lot less | 12% |
24% |
18% |
| I don’t buy holiday gifts | 5% |
6% |
6% |
Highlighting/bolding indicates significant differences between 2007 and 2008 and between 2009 and 2008
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2007, November 2008 and November 2009
HOLIDAY SHOPPING LISTS TRIMMED
This year’s shoppers are trimming their gift recipient lists along with their trees. One-quarter (26%) of shoppers are giving gifts to fewer people this year while only nine percent are expanding their lists (Figure 4).
Figure 4
Number of People on Holiday Shopping List This Year vs. Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2009
In general, shoppers are planning to spend less on holiday gifts for those on their lists this year (Figure 5).
- Least likely to feel holiday gift spending cuts are grandchildren followed by children and spouses.
- Although co-workers and pets are less likely to be included on lists, co-workers are a little more likely to feel the effects of spending cuts than pets. Friends and “other relatives” also are more likely to receive less expensive gifts this year.
- Parents and charities also will feel the pinch but not as much as co-workers, pets, “other relatives,” and friends.
Figure 5
How Much Shoppers Plan to Spend on Different Types of Gifts Compared with Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2009
GIFT CARDS SLIDE
Some retailers are employing tactics to encourage gift card purchasing for the holidays by giving shoppers “empty” gift cards at the register, which they can “fill” at the last minute with a quick call vs. another trip to the mall. This year fewer shoppers plan to buy gift cards vs. 2008, which slid from 2007 (Figure 6).
- This year more shoppers (28%) are undecided about whether they will buy gift cards vs. shoppers in the past two years. Actively promoting the “last-minute gift card” seems an appropriate response to indecisive shoppers.
Figure 6
Percentage of Primary Shoppers Buying Gifts Planning to Purchase at Least One Gift Card as a Gift
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2007, November 2008 and November 2009
Despite promotions of “last-minute gift cards,” shoppers planning to spend less of their holiday budgets outnumber those planning to spend more (Figure 7).
- The majority (52%) plans to spend about the same amount as last year on gift cards.
Figure 7
How Much on Total Holiday Shopping Budget Shoppers Plan to Spend on
Gift Cards Compared with Last Year
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2009
Little change among the places where shoppers are most likely to buy gift cards has occurred between this year and last year with one exception. The recession-weary restaurant trade could catch a break this year with 28% of gift-card buyers planning to purchase restaurant/coffee shop gift cards—possibly the token gift for the “other relatives” or friends (Figure 8).
Figure 8
Top Ten Retailer Types from Which Shoppers Plan to Buy Gift Cards
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2007, November 2008 and November 2009
PURE PLAYS MOST POPULAR FOR ONLINE GIFT SHOPPING
About the same percentage of holiday gift shoppers plans to shop online (56%) as did in the previous two years. But significantly fewer shoppers plan to buy online (22%) this year (Figure 9).
- That being said, online retailers pulled out the stops on Cyber Monday with hourly deals especially on hot electronic items, which no doubt helped boost year-to-year sales by about 5% according to comScore.
Figure 9
Percentage of Primary Shoppers Planning to Shop and to Buy Holiday Gifts/Gift Cards Online
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2007, November 2008 and November 2009
Almost one-half (45%) of online holiday gift shoppers plan to shop online-only or pure-play retailers this year (Figure 10). Other popular sites for gift shopping include: book and media retailers; toy retailers; value department store retailers; discount store/supercenter retailers; and consumer electronics retailers.
Figure 10
Types of Retailers from Which Plan to Shop Online for Holiday Gifts
Primary Shoppers Shopping Online for Gifts |
|
| Sample Size | 2146 |
| Online-only retailers | 45% |
| Book and media retailers | 26% |
| Toy retailers | 20% |
| Value department store retailers | 19% |
| Discount store/supercenter retailers | 17% |
| Consumer electronics/appliance/computer retailers | 14% |
| Gadget/gift/theme retailers | 11% |
| Specialty apparel store retailers | 10% |
| Traditional department store retailers | 9% |
| Personal care and beauty retailers | 7% |
| Sporting goods retailers | 6% |
| Warehouse clubs | 5% |
| Shoe store retailers | 4% |
| Upscale department store retailers | 4% |
| Home furnishings/domestics store retailers | 4% |
| Home improvement/hardware store retailers | 3% |
| Crafts or fabrics store retailers | 3% |
| Jewelry store retailers | 3% |
| Office supply retailers | 2% |
| Other | 11% |
| Don’t know | 15% |
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2009
ShopperScape™ members will receive a more detailed analysis of current shopping trends and spending plans for the holiday. ShopperScape™ members also can request assistance in custom analyses of this information by contacting Rachel McGuire (rmcguire@retailforward.com) or Mandy Putnam (mputnam@retailforward.com).
7 merchandise groups Tap into the leading source of timely shopper insights and learn: What’s happening with spending sentiment? Who’s winning and who’s losing shoppers? Where else are customers shopping? How is retailer and channel preference shifting? What will shopping behavior be like post-recession? Schedule a demo of ShopperScape™ and get a free customer or account profile! |
What's Retail Forward ShopperScape™? Retail Forward ShopperScape™ focuses on today’s consumers and their shopping behaviors. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ has been fielded since November 2003 to a sample of 4,000 consumers each month. The survey gathers timely, up-to-date information about where consumers shop and what they buy. Retail Forward ShopperScape™ is administered through TNS’s online household panel, weighted based to be representative of U.S. households. For more information, call Kathy Clarke at 614-355-4009 or visit http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/ss_default.asp to view sample reports and learn more about how to access ShopperScape™ information. |
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