For additional information contact:
Katherine R. Clarke
TNS Retail Forward
614/355-4009
kclarke@retailforward.com »

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December Same Store Sales Fall Flat, TNS Retail Forward Reports

COLUMBUS, January 10, 2008—December same store sales growth weakened to 0.2% from the prior month and from the prior year for about 50 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reports. 

December’s result is down from a 3.5% sales-weighted composite reported last month and down from the 3.2% composite reported in December of 2006. 

“The retail numbers leave little doubt that shoppers are in belt-tightening mode.  No part of retail spending is immune right now.  From stores to online retailers and lower income to higher income shoppers, there are signs of weakness that will persist into 2008,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist and Director of the Retail Forward KnowledgeBase™. 

Department Stores and Apparel and Accessory Stores registered big declines in the composite results by channel.  Discount Department Store and Drug Stores managed slight-to-modest increases.  Warehouse Clubs represented the only line of trade with a strong increase.  (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf. »)

The December numbers reflect the weak shopper sentiment in TNS Retail Forward’s December ShopperScape™ survey.  Shoppers estimate that they cut back on their holiday spending compared with last year—and did so across a range of categories (Figures 1 and 2):

• ShopperScape™ survey findings from the few days directly following Christmas before New Year’s Eve show the same percentage of shoppers buying holiday gifts this year as last year, but shoppers estimate that they spent less than last year—$635 on average this year vs. $710 on average last year (Figure 1).
• Not surprisingly, the percentage of shoppers buying pre-recorded media continues to decline (-4 percentage points) as more consumers turn to iTunes and other alternatives (Figure 2). 
• Home décor or home-related furnishings were hurt, in part, by a weak housing market.  The category suffered a 3 percentage point decline in terms of the percentage of shoppers buying holiday gifts in the category.
• Personal care or beauty items dropped 3 percentage points in terms of the share of shoppers buying gifts in the category.
• Toys/dolls/games (up 2 percentage points) and video games/gaming systems (up 1 percentage point) were the rare winners among categories.

Retail stores cannot necessarily blame online retailing for luring away shoppers.  Online shopping was also not as robust as prior years, according to the December ShopperScape™ survey (Figures 3 and 4).

• Fewer shoppers (82%) this holiday season said they shopped online for gifts vs. last year (88%).  And the percentage of purchasers online (77%) declined slightly from last year (80%) (Figure 3). 
• Online spending estimates dipped slightly to $262 on average compared with $272 last year (Figure 4).
• Up Market shoppers spent $344 online on average—well above what Down Market and Middle Market shoppers spent online.

Meanwhile, gift cards may not necessarily be the salvation of post-holiday shopping.  The percentage of household receiving cards and the estimated value of those gift cards declined compared with last year, according to the December ShopperScape™ survey (Figures 5 and 6).

• Primary shoppers getting gift cards as presents reported receiving an average $124 worth of them—slightly below last year’s report of $136 on average.  Fifty-six percent of households received gift cards compared with 58% last year (Figure 5).
• Up Market households fared much better in the gift card department.  Almost two-thirds of them received gift cards at an average value of $171.
• Types of gift cards received this holiday season did not vary much from last year with one notable exception.  The percentage of households receiving restaurant/coffee shop gift cards plummeted from 31% in 2006 to 23% in 2007—bad enough news to curdle the latte at coffee shops (Figure 6).
• Differences among income market segments show Down Market consumers much more likely to have received Wal-Mart gift cards than any other type of gift card.
• In contrast, Up Market recipients got more restaurant/coffee shop, book and media store and Target gift cards than any other types of gift card.

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About TNS Retail Forward
TNS Retail Forward, Inc. (www.retailforward.com ») is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.

About the TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the last week of December 2007. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (kclarke@retailforward.com ») or visit the company's web site at www.retailforward.com ».

About TNS

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Figure 1
Spending on Holiday Gifts 2007 vs. 2006*

* Among shoppers buying holiday gifts.  Average dollar amount shown.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

* Among shoppers buying holiday gifts.  Average dollar amount shown.
** Not comparable between years
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

* Among shoppers buying holiday gifts.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

* Among shoppers buying holiday gifts and shopping online for holiday gifts.  Average dollar amount shown.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

* Among shoppers receiving holiday gifts cards.  Average dollar amount shown.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™