Press Release

For additional information contact:
Katherine R. Clarke
TNS Retail Forward
614/355-4009
kclarke@retailforward.com »

January Same-store Sales Inch Up but Stay Weak, TNS Retail Forward Reports

COLUMBUS, Feb. 7, 2008—January same-store sales growth increased to 1.0% from the prior month but weakened from the prior year for about 50 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reports.

January’s result is up from a 0.2% sales-weighted composite reported last month and down from the 4.0% composite reported in January 2007.

“The numbers leave no doubt that consumers are holding the line on spending amid the weakening economy. According to some retailers, gift card redemptions helped but were below expectations. It also appears that consumers are spending mostly on necessities,” said Ayuna Kidder, Economist and Consultant.

January’s results were led by stronger than average results at Drug Stores and Warehouse Clubs. Discount Department Store and Small-format Store results were generally flat. Apparel and Accessory Stores and Department Stores recorded declines in the composite results by channel. (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf. ».)

The January results include sales from shoppers redeeming their holiday gift cards. According to TNS Retail Forward’s January ShopperScape™ Survey, gift card giving extended beyond Christmas, with the total percentage of households receiving gift cards and the total amount received both slightly higher than last year’s numbers (Figure 1):

January’s ShopperScape™ survey shows 61% of households receiving gift cards during the holidays—up from December’s report of 56% of households.
The average total value received rang in at $139 comparable with last year’s $136.
Affluent households fared best in the gift card department.

No doubt gift cards boosted January’s sales with half of their value redeemed before the end of the month (Figure 2):

Gift cards will also support February’s sales since shoppers predict they will have spent two-thirds of the value of their gift cards by Valentine’s Day.
Although Down Market households redeemed many of their gift cards early—soon after Christmas day—those in the Middle and Up Markets expect to catch up to the percentage redeemed by the Down Market by the middle of the month—although they have a bit more to spend in terms of value.

The gender gap widened further this year between men and women in terms of their intentions to spend on Valentine’s Day gifts (Figure 3):

About the same percentages of men (70%) and women (65%) are participating in Valentine’s Day giving as last year.
But, men are much more likely than women to say they intend to spend more this year than last (12% vs. 6%).
Higher percentages of men and women are reporting intentions to spend less this year on Valentine’s Day than last year.

While greeting cards remain of the most popular Valentine’s Day gifts, percentages of men and women anticipating purchasing cards have dropped dramatically from last year (Figure 4):

Women are more likely to be planning to buy greeting cards and candy, and men are more likely to be planning to buy flowers and fine jewelry—traditional differences between genders.
Candy as a gift is declining in popularity with both genders as consumers literally try to tighten their belts.
New to the list this year is the ever-popular fallback gift—gift cards. However, the percentage of shoppers planning to purchase them as Valentines is relatively small—8% for men and 10% for women.

Men have traditionally spent more than women on Valentine’s Day gifts, but the difference is more pronounced this year (Figure 5):

Men who buy Valentine’s Day gifts estimate they will spend an average $95—not significantly more than they did last year.
Women who buy Valentine’s Day gifts estimate they will spend an average $67—quite a bit less than the average $74 they estimated last year.

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About TNS Retail Forward
TNS Retail Forward, Inc. (www.retailforward.com ») is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program, known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.

About the TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the third week of January 2008. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (kclarke@retailforward.com ») or visit the company's web site at www.retailforward.com ».

About TNS

TNS is a global market insight and information group. Our strategic goal is to be recognized as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help our clients to make more effective decisions.

As industry thought leaders, our people deliver innovative thinking and excellent service to global organizations and local clients worldwide. We work in partnership with our clients, meeting their needs for high-quality information, analysis and foresight across our network of over 70 countries.

We are the world’s foremost provider of custom research and analysis, combining in-depth industry sector understanding with world-class expertise in the areas of new product development, segmentation and positioning research, brand and advertising research and stakeholder management. We are a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and internet, TV and radio audience measurement services.

TNS is the sixth sense of business.
www.tns-global.com »

Figure 1

Holiday Gift Cards Received

				Holiday Gift Cards Received January 2008
	All Shoppers January 2008	All Shoppers December 2007	All Shoppers 2006	Down Market (<$22,500)	Middle Market ($22,500 to $84,999)	Up Market ($85,000+)
Percentage of Households Receiving	61%	56%	58%	47%	63%	70%
Average Total Value Received*	$139	$124	$136	$114	$131	$174

* Among shoppers receiving holiday gifts cards. Average dollar amount shown

Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

Figure 2

Percentages of Gift Card Values Redeemed

	All Shoppers	Down Market (<$22,500)	Middle Market ($22,500 to $84,999)	Up Market ($85,000+)
Percentage Redeemed So Far	50%	61%	49%	45%
Percentage Will Redeem by Valentine's Day	67%	66%	68%	67%

Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

Figure 3

Compared to last year, do you plan to spend more, the same, or less this year on gifts for Valentine's Day?

	Male Shoppers			Female Shoppers
	2006	2007	2008	2006	2007	2008
Much More/Somewhat More	8%	7%	12%	7%	9%	6%
About the Same	46%	52%	44%	41%	44%	42%
Much Less/Somewhat Less	13%	10%	14%	15%	12%	17%
Do not Purchase gifts for Valentine's Day	34%	31%	30%	38%	36%	35%

Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

Figure 4

Percentage Planning to Purchase Gift for Valentine's Day*

	Male Shoppers			Female Shoppers
	2006	2007	2008	2006	2007	2008
Greeting Cards	60%	69%	61%	69%	81%	73%
Candy	35%	44%	40%	44%	59%	55%
Flowers	40%	49%	49%	12%	15%	12%
Gift Cards	NA	NA	8%	NA	NA	10%
Fragrances/Cologne	8%	6%	6%	7%	10%	9%
Fine Jewelry	9%	10%	12%	5%	4%	5%
Costume Jewelry	1%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%
Women's Lingerie	6%	6%	8%	7%	8%	7%
Men's Underwear	3%	3%	4%	6%	9%	8%
Clothing/Shoes	7%	5%	7%	7%	8%	7%
Consumer Electronics	3%	3%	5%	4%	5%	5%
Sporting Goods	2%	3%	3%	2%	4%	3%
Other**	16%	16%	14%	23%	25%	20%

*Among shoppers planning to purchase gifts for Valentine's Day
** Not comparable with 2006 or 2007 since Gift Cards added as a category
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™

Figure 5

Average Overall Planned Spending on Valentine's Day*

	Male Shoppers			Female Shoppers
	2006	2007	2008	2006	2007	2008

Average Overall Spending	$68	$92	$95	$60	$74	$67

*Among shoppers planning to purchase gifts for Valentine's Day
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™