August Same Store Sales Improve, TNS Retail Forward Reports
COLUMBUS, September 6, 2007—August same store sales growth improved to 3.0% from the prior month but weakened from the prior year for 49 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reports.
August’s result is up from a 2.9% sales-weighted composite reported last month and down from the 3.9% composite reported in August of 2006.
“Shoppers were not spooked like stock market investors by fears of a credit crunch. But that only means that the fallout for households will hit home more gradually in the coming months,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist and Director of the Retail Forward KnowledgeBase™.
August’s results were led by stronger than average results at Drug Stores and Discount Department Stores. Warehouse Clubs tracked the industry average. Lagging were Apparel and Accessory Stores and Department Stores, although upscale department stores remained an exception. (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf ».)
Discount retailers appeared to benefit from plans by shoppers to hold the line on back-to-school spending, according to TNS Retail Forward’s August ShopperScape™ survey. The latest survey results suggest that spending plans are lagging—or at best matching—last year’s spending:
The average expected back-to-school spending of $571 estimated by shoppers in August remained down significantly from last year’s estimate of $596 (Figure 2). The estimate was also down from the $576 estimated the prior month, but not significantly. The estimates by shoppers also revealed that:
Last month’s results for the distribution of estimated total back-to-school spending by category suggested potential weakness in the computer category compared with last year. However, this month’s findings show the percentage of spending represented by individual categories will likely not vary much versus last year (Figure 3).
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About TNS Retail Forward
TNS Retail Forward, Inc. (www.retailforward.com ») is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.
About the TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the last week of August 2007. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (kclarke@retailforward.com ») or visit the company's web site at www.retailforward.com ».
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Figure 1. Plans to Spend on Back-to-School Relative to Last Year
|
Third week |
Third Week |
Third Week |
Much More/Somewhat More |
37% |
32% |
36% |
About the same |
48% |
53% |
46% |
Somewhat Less/Much Less |
13% |
13% |
14% |
This is the first year I will be making back-to-school purchases |
3% |
3% |
4% |
Sources: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
Figure 2. Comparisons between BTS Estimated Spending 2006 and 2007
Third Week |
Third Week |
Third Week |
|
Percentage of households spending on BTS |
16% |
15% |
33% |
Average estimated BTS spending by BTS shoppers |
$366 |
$365 |
$427 |
Estimated percentage of spending to date |
26% |
28% |
67% |
Percentage of households planning to spend during rest of BTS season |
35% |
31% |
21% |
Average estimated spending during rest of BTS season by BTS shoppers |
$492 |
$458 |
$315 |
Average estimated total BTS spending by BTS shoppers |
$596 |
$576 |
$571 |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
Figure 3. Estimated Spending by Back-to-School Category
BTS Category |
Percentage of Total Estimated Spending Third Week in |
Percentage of Total Estimated Spending Third Week in |
Percentage of |
Clothing |
33% |
34% |
33% |
Books |
12% |
13% |
14% |
Computers |
16% |
13% |
15% |
Shoes |
12% |
12% |
11% |
School supplies |
10% |
11% |
11% |
Backpacks/school bags |
4% |
4% |
4% |
Other electronics |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Dormitory furnishings/bedding/bath |
3% |
3% |
4% |
Computer software |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Other |
4% |
4% |
3% |
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™