Press Release

For additional information contact:
Kathy Clarke
Retail Forward
614/355-4009
kclarke@retailforward.com »

October Same-Store Sales Jump, Retail Forward Reports

COLUMBUS, November 5, 2009— Retail same-store sales excluding Walmart improved significantly in October, as shoppers expand their spending plans while they simultaneously retain the cautious shopping tactics they’ve used during the downturn, Retail Forward reports.

Sales-weighted same-store sales excluding Walmart increased 2.3% in October for the approximately 30 retailers—most of them apparel retailers—reporting monthly results today. That was better than the 0.9% gain last month and the 3.8% decline in October of 2008 for the same composite measure calculated without Walmart. Including Walmart, same-store sales were down 0.6% in October of 2008.

“October again showed positive signs from shoppers, although the improvement was less even among retailers compared with the back-to-school months. Households remain focused on shopping for needs and this kind of cautious shopping behavior will restrain the sales improvement we can expect in the coming months," said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at Retail Forward.

The results were led by stronger than average results among apparel and accessory stores and the few food, drug and mass retailers that report. Lagging were Department Stores. (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link:http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf. ».)

October’s results reflect an improving trend—albeit uneven—in shoppers’ intentions to spend. Spending plans showed some improvement in October from the prior month and last year, according to Retail Forward’s October ShopperScape™ survey (Figure 1):

The percentage of shoppers planning to curb their near-term spending declined to 45% from 53% a year ago and 47% in September.

The percentage of shoppers planning to spend about the same as a year ago increased to 47% from 39% a year ago and 44% in September.

On the negative side, only nine percent of shoppers plan to increase their near-term spending compared with eight percent a year ago.

Despite the improving trend in their spending intentions, shoppers appear to remain just as focused as in recent months on using tactics to find good deals, limit their spending and trade down among brands and channels—although to a significantly lesser degree than late last year, according to the latest ShopperScape™ survey (Figure 2).

Deal-seeking. The percentages of shoppers using deal-seeking tactics—such as taking advantage of good sales/deals, doing more price comparison shopping and using more coupons—held relatively steady or edged higher in October compared with May. But the percentages remain lower than August of 2008.

Limiting spending. The percentages of shoppers using tactics to limit their spending—such as buying only things they need, buying fewer things or shopping less often—held mostly steady or edged higher in October compared with May. One exception is that the percentage of shoppers that said they were buying fewer luxury items declined to 24% from 29% in May. All the October percentages remain lower than August of 2008.

Trading down. The percentages of shoppers trading down among brands and channels—such as buying less expensive versions of products, buying more store brands, or doing more shopping at discount and value retailers—held relatively steady or edged higher in October compared with May. But the percentages remain lower than August of 2008.

Looking ahead to the holiday, shoppers are wary about spending more than last year, but more shoppers are planning to spend the same as last year and fewer are planning to cut back on their spending (Figure 3).

Only seven percent plan to spend more this year on holiday gifts—the same percentage as last October.

Forty-three percent of shoppers say they plan to spend about the same amount as last year, which is significantly more than the 37% planning to spend the same amount in October 2008.

Although 45% of shoppers say they are going to curb holiday spending, this percentage is significantly less than the 50% planning cut backs in October 2008.

Shoppers are significantly more indecisive this year about how much they plan to spend on holiday gifts—42% don’t know how much they will spend and 20% don’t know how much of their budget they’ve spent so far.

Figure 1. Intentions to Spend at Retail Stores in the Coming Month Compared with Last Year

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2008 to October 2009

Figure 2. How Shopping Behavior Changed This Year

	All Shoppers August 2008	All Shoppers May 2009	All Shoppers October 2009
	(1)	(2)	(3)
Sample Size	4100	4070	4065

Deal-Seeking
Taking advantage of good sales/deals	49%^2,3	39%	41%
Doing more price comparison shopping before making a purchase	39%^2,3	29%	31%²
Using more coupons	35%²	31%	34%²
Buying in bulk quantities	18%³	14%	14%
Stocking up on items expected to rise in price	16%^2,3	12%	11%

Limiting Spending
Buying only things I truly need	49%^2,3	42%	43%
Buying fewer things	42%²	37%	40%²
Shopping less often	41%²	33%	38%²
Buying fewer luxury items	38%^2,3	29%³	24%
Postponing purchases	35%²	29%	33%²
Buying only items needed in the near term	30%^2,3	21%	23%²
Using/keeping items longer before buying replacements	26%^2,3	20%	23%²

Trading Down
Buying less expensive versions of products	34%^2,3	23%	22%
Buying more store brands instead of national or high-end brands	33%^2,3	21%	24%²
Doing more shopping at discount and value retailers	28%^2,3	19%	25%²
Trading down to less-expensive brands	25%^2,3	16%	17%

Superscript letters/numbers indicate a percentage that is significantly greater than the percentage in the column corresponding to that letter/number (95% confidence level)
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, August 2008, May and October 2009

Figure 3. Spending on Holiday Gifts This Year Compared with Last Year

	Oct-08	Oct-09
A lot/somewhat more	7%	7%
About the same amount	37%	43%
A lot/somewhat less	50%	45%
I don't buy holiday gifts	5%	5%

Percentage who don't know amount planning to spend	39%	42%
Avg. percent of holiday budget spent so far	11%	11%
Percentage who don't know what part of holiday budget they've spent	18%	20%

Note: Highlighting/bolding indicates a significant year-to-year difference (95% confidence level)
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2008 and October 2010

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About Retail Forward
Retail Forward, Inc. (www.retailforward.com ») is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.

About the Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the last week of October 2009. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (kclarke@retailforward.com ») or visit the company's web site at www.retailforward.com ».