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November Same-Store Sales Stay Positive but Weaken, Retail Forward Reports

COLUMBUS, December 3, 2009— Retail same-store sales excluding Walmart stayed positive, but weakened in November compared with October, Retail Forward reports.  Most retailers reported strong results for the Black Friday weekend, but weaker results earlier in the month. 

Sales-weighted same-store sales excluding Walmart weakened to a 0.9% gain in November for 31 retailers—most of them apparel retailers—reporting monthly results today.  That was worse than the 2.3% gain last month, but better than the 7.7% decline in November of 2008 for the same composite measure calculated without Walmart.  Including Walmart, same-store sales were down 2.5% in November of 2008. 

Retailers said that warm November weather dampened sales of winter clothing, but that shoppers responded well to post-Thanksgiving promotions. 

 “Shoppers continue to give signs that they are ready to loosen the grip on their spending plans, but at the same time remain very cautious and deal-focused in their spending,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at Retail Forward. 

The same-store sales results for November were led by stronger than average results at Apparel and Accessory Stores and Food, Drug and Mass Retailers.  Department Stores lagged.  (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf.)

November’s results reflect continuing improvement—albeit uneven from month-to-month—in shoppers’ intentions to spend.  Spending plans reported by shoppers in November were the best since February 2008, according to Retail Forward’s November ShopperScape™ survey (Figure 1):

• More than half of shoppers (53%) plan to maintain near-term spending levels about the same as last year, which is only the second time since February 2008 that more than half of shoppers planned to do so. 

• The percentage of shoppers planning to curb their near-term spending declined to 37% in November, the lowest percentage since February 2008.

• Few shoppers (10%) plan to spend more than last year, but that’s the largest share since September 2008. 

Spending plans are being held back by income concerns, but may be getting a boost from improvement in other aspects of households’ financial health, according to the November ShopperScape™ survey (Figure 2).

• Fewer shoppers feel better off about their household income this November (23%) compared with last November (27%).

• More shoppers feel better off about their debt levels—credit cards and monthly mortgage and car payments—compared with last November.

• Shoppers feel particularly more positive than last year about their investments and to a lesser extent their home values, although those feeling worse off still far outnumber those feeling better off.

For the holidays, the ShopperScape™ results suggest that household spending will be somewhere between last year and 2007—which was weak as the country was entering the recession, but was not as dreadful as the 2008 holiday (Figure 3).

• Nine percent of shoppers plan to spend more this holiday compared with last year.  That’s an improvement from the 7% last year, but down from the 14% in 2007.

• Forty-two percent of shoppers intend to spend about the same amount as they did last year—up from the 35% in 2008 but less than the 48% in 2007.

• Forty-three percent of shoppers plan to spend less this holiday compared with last year.  That’s fewer than the 53% last year, but more than the 33% in 2007.

Figure 1. Intentions to Spend at Retail Stores in the Coming Month Compared with Last Year

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008 to November 2009

Figure 2.  Shoppers' Perceived Household Financial Health Compared with Last Year

Highlighting/bolding indicates significant difference between November 2008 and November 2009 percentages
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2008 and November 2009

Figure 3.  How Much Shoppers Plan to Spend on Holidays Compared with Last Year

Highlighting/bolding indicates significant differences between 2007 and 2008 and between 2009 and 2008
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, November 2007, November 2008 and November 2009

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About Retail Forward
Retail Forward, Inc. (www.retailforward.com ») is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.

About the Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the last week of November 2009. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (kclarke@retailforward.com ») or visit the company's web site at www.retailforward.com ».